Uganda Economic Outlook
June 21, 2022
According to preliminary data, annual GDP growth accelerated to 4.6% in the 12 months to June 2022, up from 3.5% in the previous fiscal year. However, the expansion remained below its pre-pandemic level. The acceleration in FY 2022 was driven by improved momentum in the services sector—particularly wholesale and retail trade, real estate activities and education—and likely aided by the reduced impact of Covid-19 and the reopening of schools. Industrial output also picked up amid a surge in mining output, while agricultural output growth was steady, as a recovery in fishing offset slower cash crops growth. In politics, in mid-June the government announced a fairly cautious FY 2023 budget, despite public demands for more support to offset the rising cost of living. The budget projects a roughly 7% rise in nominal spending—far below the expected increase in revenue—and a smaller fiscal deficit.Uganda Economic Growth
There will be a modest slowdown in GDP growth during the 2022 calendar year as government spending growth slows. Moreover, higher inflation could hinder private consumption. However, investment growth should strengthen as oil sector projects develop. Extreme weather events and social unrest due to rising price pressures are risks. FocusEconomics panelists forecast the economy to grow 5.4% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s projection, and 6.0% in 2023.Uganda Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 35.5 | 36.6 | 37.7 | 38.8 | 39.8 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 829 | 835 | 837 | 867 | 912 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 29.4 | 30.5 | 31.5 | 33.7 | 36.3 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 6.0 | 0.6 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 5.6 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.9 | -4.1 | -3.2 | -3.8 | -6.7 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 34.3 | 37.1 | 39.7 | 41.4 | - |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 5.6 | 13.5 | 15.4 | 6.3 | 16.2 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 8.4 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 3.6 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 17.00 | 12.00 | 9.50 | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 3,372 | 3,610 | 3,645 | 3,715 | 3,670 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 3,240 | 3,418 | 3,612 | 3,728 | 3,704 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -6.2 | -2.8 | -4.5 | -7.2 | -9.5 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -1.7 | -0.8 | -1.5 | -2.3 | -2.3 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -2.3 | -1.6 | -1.7 | -2.5 | -2.7 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 6.8 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -2.1 | 9.5 | 18.1 | 5.6 | 11.9 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -2.8 | -8.8 | 14.3 | 18.1 | 11.7 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 32.5 | 33.0 | 37.1 | 36.6 | - |
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Uganda Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 15.75 | 1.02 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 3,670 | 0.17 % | Dec 31 |
| Stock Market | 0.3 | 0.0 % | Jan 07 |
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