Uganda Economic Forecast

Uganda Economic Outlook

October 19, 2021

GDP expanded at a record rate in year-on-year terms in the second quarter (Q2: +13.7% yoy; Q1: +3.0% yoy) amid a broad-based improvement in activity, with the industrial and services sectors both growing at swifter rates. Data for Q3 points towards a sustained, yet slower recovery as the favorable base effect dissipates. Economic activity slowed through July and August, although it continued to expand at a robust rate. Meanwhile, although the private sector PMI tumbled in July amid a 42-day lockdown, it rebounded into expansionary territory in August and September as containment measures were relaxed and activity resumed. Moreover, selected restrictions were further eased on 23 September, with limits on social gatherings and certain businesses being softened. That said, the nationwide curfew remains in place, as logistical problems and vaccine hesitancy continue to drag on the rollout.

Uganda Economic Growth

GDP growth is expected to accelerate in 2022 on the back of firming domestic demand. Private and capital spending are projected to drive the improvement as the vaccination campaign picks up and restrictions at home are loosened. That said, restrictions abroad could temper growth, while social tensions and growing debt stocks weigh on the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast the economy to grow 5.2% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 6.0% in 2023.

Uganda Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)35.536.637.738.839.8
GDP per capita (USD)829835837867912
GDP (USD bn)29.430.531.533.736.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.00.67.26.05.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.9-4.1-3.2-3.8-6.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.337.139.741.4-  
Money (annual variation in %)5.613.515.46.316.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.45.73.32.23.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.45.55.62.62.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)17.0012.009.5010.009.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3,3723,6103,6453,7153,670
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3,2403,4183,6123,7283,704
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.2-2.8-4.5-7.2-9.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.7-0.8-1.5-2.3-2.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.3-1.6-1.7-2.5-2.7
Exports (USD billion)2.72.93.43.64.1
Imports (USD billion)5.04.55.26.16.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.19.518.15.611.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.8-8.814.318.111.7
International Reserves (USD)2.83.03.73.23.2
External Debt (% of GDP)32.533.037.136.6-  

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Uganda Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield15.751.02 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate3,6700.17 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.30.0 %Jan 07

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