Uganda Economic Forecast

Uganda Economic Outlook

June 21, 2022

According to preliminary data, annual GDP growth accelerated to 4.6% in the 12 months to June 2022, up from 3.5% in the previous fiscal year. However, the expansion remained below its pre-pandemic level. The acceleration in FY 2022 was driven by improved momentum in the services sector—particularly wholesale and retail trade, real estate activities and education—and likely aided by the reduced impact of Covid-19 and the reopening of schools. Industrial output also picked up amid a surge in mining output, while agricultural output growth was steady, as a recovery in fishing offset slower cash crops growth. In politics, in mid-June the government announced a fairly cautious FY 2023 budget, despite public demands for more support to offset the rising cost of living. The budget projects a roughly 7% rise in nominal spending—far below the expected increase in revenue—and a smaller fiscal deficit.

Uganda Economic Growth

There will be a modest slowdown in GDP growth during the 2022 calendar year as government spending growth slows. Moreover, higher inflation could hinder private consumption. However, investment growth should strengthen as oil sector projects develop. Extreme weather events and social unrest due to rising price pressures are risks. FocusEconomics panelists forecast the economy to grow 5.4% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s projection, and 6.0% in 2023.

Uganda Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)35.536.637.738.839.8
GDP per capita (USD)829835837867912
GDP (USD bn)29.430.531.533.736.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.00.67.26.05.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.9-4.1-3.2-3.8-6.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.337.139.741.4-  
Money (annual variation in %)5.613.515.46.316.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.45.73.32.23.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.45.55.62.62.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)17.0012.009.5010.009.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)3,3723,6103,6453,7153,670
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3,2403,4183,6123,7283,704
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.2-2.8-4.5-7.2-9.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.7-0.8-1.5-2.3-2.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.3-1.6-1.7-2.5-2.7
Exports (USD billion)2.72.93.43.64.1
Imports (USD billion)5.04.55.26.16.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.19.518.15.611.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.8-8.814.318.111.7
International Reserves (USD)2.83.03.73.23.2
External Debt (% of GDP)32.533.037.136.6-  

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Uganda Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield15.751.02 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate3,6700.17 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.30.0 %Jan 07

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