Uganda Economic Outlook
October 18, 2016Recent GDP data show that Uganda’s economy continued to grow in Q2, albeit at a moderate pace. A breakdown by sectors points to the service sector as the main driver of growth. Industry also expanded in Q2, supported by manufacturing, while the agricultural sector contracted as poor food crops took a toll on production. In late September, the World Bank announced that it will withhold new lending to Uganda while it reviews the progress made in the projects which it is already funding in the country. The issues under examination include poor fund absorption and weaknesses in project execution and monitoring.
Uganda Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||628||688||692||718||-|
|GDP (USD bn)||21.7||24.5||25.5||27.3||-|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||7.9||2.9||3.9||5.3||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-2.8||-3.1||-4.1||-4.8||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||23.6||24.2||27.6||31.4||-|
|Money (annual variation in %)||4.9||13.9||8.4||15.6||5.4|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||23.8||4.5||5.5||2.2||8.4|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||18.7||12.9||5.0||3.1||5.5|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||23.00||12.00||11.50||11.00||17.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||2,480||2,690||2,523||2,765||3,372|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||2,524||2,505||2,586||2,599||3,240|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-9.7||-6.8||-7.1||-9.6||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-2.1||-1.7||-1.8||-2.6||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-2.5||-2.5||-2.1||-2.4||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||2.5||2.8||2.8||2.7||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||5.0||5.3||5.0||5.1||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||17.7||11.6||0.8||-3.5||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||14.2||5.3||-5.5||2.2||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||2.4||3.0||3.1||3.2||-|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||15.0||15.4||18.9||18.8||-|
5 years of Uganda economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||16.55||-0.60 %||Oct 26|
|Exchange Rate||3,458||0.15 %||Oct 26|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Oct 26|
Uganda Economic Growth
October 18, 2016Ambitious government-sponsored infrastructure investment will help support growth this year. However, sluggish global demand and the conflict in South Sudan will negatively impact Uganda’s exports. On balance, panelists forecast that GDP will expand 5.0% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. Analysts see GDP growth at 5.3% in 2017.