Turkey Industrial production July 2021


Turkey: Industrial output records lowest expansion since September 2020 in July

September 13, 2021

Industrial production grew 8.7% year-on-year in July (June: +24.1% yoy). The figure marked the worst reading since September 2020, and came in markedly below market analysts’ expectations. Looking at the details of the release, mining and quarrying production increased at a slower pace in July, while manufacturing output also lost momentum.

Meanwhile, the trend improved, with the annual average growth of industrial production coming in at plus 17.0% in July, up from June's 16.7%.

On a seasonally-adjusted month-on-month basis, industrial production contracted 4.2% in July (June: +2.2% mom). This suggests that underlying momentum waned at the outset of the third quarter.

Analysts at Garanti-BBVA added:

“July’s weaker than expected [industrial production] could have stemmed from supply shortages, deepening cost-push factors and side effects of the long religious holiday. As our nowcast indicates, still growing domestic demand and strong exports might result in a mild positive quarterly growth rate in Q3. We expect 2021 GDP growth to be 9.0%, with risks still on the upside; though today’s data might partially eliminate those risks, which will be clearer with August data.”

FocusEconomics panelists see industrial production increasing 8.8% in 2021, which is up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. For 2022, our panelists expect industrial production to increase 3.3%.


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Turkey Industrial production Chart

Turkey Industry July 2021

Note: Annual and monthly variation of industrial production index in %.
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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