Tanzania Economic Forecast

Tanzania Economic Outlook

September 21, 2021

Following the first quarter’s GDP expansion in annual terms, conditions seemingly continued to strengthen in Q2 and at the outset of Q3. Goods imports grew robustly in April–July, pointing to stronger domestic demand dynamics, although a favorable base effect flattered the reading. Moreover, despite slowing in annual terms at the tail end of Q2, personal credit growth remained robust, and accelerated in July, which should have supported spending. However, higher inflation in June–August could have tempered the overall improvement. Meanwhile, in early September, parliament ratified the AfCFTA agreement, which should boost trade ahead. In other news, on 7 September the IMF approved two loans totaling around USD 567 million to help finance the authorities’ response to the pandemic. Lastly, the vaccine rollout—which started on 3 August—is lagging due to a lack of jabs and widespread skepticism.

Tanzania Economic Growth

GDP growth should accelerate this year and next, bolstered by strengthening private consumption and recovering exports as global restrictions are eased. However, ongoing uncertainty over the pandemic, a late start to the vaccine rollout, and the sizable fiscal deficit brought about by the government’s large-scale infrastructure projects cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to grow 5.5% in 2021. In 2022, GDP is seen expanding 5.7%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Tanzania Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)50.051.553.154.756.3
GDP per capita (USD)9259621,0001,039-  
GDP (USD bn)46.349.653.156.8-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.26.96.87.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.31.14.86.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)7.116.015.815.5-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.2-2.1-1.2-1.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.137.037.738.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)13.45.310.43.811.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.85.04.03.33.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.65.25.33.53.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0016.009.007.007.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,1602,1812,2402,3002,298
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,0402,1862,2372,2772,307
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.7-5.5-3.4-3.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.5-2.7-1.8-2.2-1.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.0-3.6-3.0-3.6-3.4
Exports (USD billion)4.84.94.54.45.6
Imports (USD billion)9.88.57.68.19.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.11.0-7.4-1.525.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-9.8-14.0-10.86.811.8
International Reserves (USD)4.14.35.95.05.6
External Debt (% of GDP)33.032.734.732.7-  

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Tanzania Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield14.730.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate2,3000.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market1.20.0 %Jan 06

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