Tanzania Economic Forecast

Tanzania Economic Outlook

January 25, 2022

Conditions continued to improve in Q3, with annual GDP growth accelerating to 5.2% from 4.5% in Q2. The upturn was due to brisker growth in activity in the agricultural, mining and quarrying, manufacturing, accommodation and restaurants, and construction sectors. Available data suggests momentum carried over into Q4: Personal credit growth averaged higher in October–November than in Q3, which likely supported more robust growth of merchandise imports in the same period, hinting at strengthening domestic demand dynamics. In other news, on 17 December, the World Bank approved the USD 500 million BOOST program to improve the quality and accessibility of primary schools. On 21 December, the World Bank also approved a USD 150 million project to strengthen land tenure security for land holders and users in targeted regions.

Tanzania Economic Growth

Economic growth is seen accelerating this year from 2021’s pandemic-affected outturn. Large construction projects will bolster capital spending and employment levels, in turn supporting private spending. However, still-frail fiscal metrics and high debt stocks are risks to the outlook, as is lingering pandemic-related uncertainty. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to expand 5.5% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.9% in 2023.

Tanzania Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)50.051.553.154.756.3
GDP per capita (USD)9259621,0001,039-  
GDP (USD bn)46.349.653.156.8-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.26.96.87.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.31.14.86.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)7.116.015.815.5-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.2-2.1-1.2-1.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.137.037.738.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)13.45.310.43.811.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.85.04.03.33.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.65.25.33.53.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0016.009.007.007.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,1602,1812,2402,3002,298
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,0402,1862,2372,2772,307
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.7-5.5-3.4-3.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.5-2.7-1.8-2.2-1.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.0-3.6-3.0-3.6-3.4
Exports (USD billion)4.84.94.54.45.6
Imports (USD billion)9.88.57.68.19.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.11.0-7.4-1.525.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-9.8-14.0-10.86.811.8
International Reserves (USD)4.14.35.95.05.6
External Debt (% of GDP)33.032.734.732.7-  

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Tanzania Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield14.730.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate2,3000.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market1.20.0 %Jan 06

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