Tanzania Economic Forecast

Tanzania Economic Outlook

June 21, 2022

The economy should have accelerated so far this year, as surging private-sector credit growth in January–April likely aided demand. Focusing on H2, a nearly 25% increase in the minimum wage, strong foreign investment inflows, a fuel subsidy package and the recently-announced expansionary FY 2023 budget will further aid momentum. In the budget, the government expects to more than double spending on agriculture relative to FY 2022, with extra support for irrigation projects, fertilizer, and livestock and fishery schemes. Overall government spending is set to rise roughly 9% year on year. In early June, the IMF announced a staff-level agreement on a USD 1.1 billion extended credit facility, which aims to boost social spending, increase fiscal revenue and advance structural reforms. The agreement must now be approved by the Fund’s Executive Board.

Tanzania Economic Growth

Economic growth is set to pick up this year, as large infrastructure projects, strong credit provision, higher wages and a supportive FY 2023 budget bolster domestic demand. However, extreme weather events and a more adverse external environment cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast GDP to expand 5.4% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.9% in 2023.

Tanzania Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)50.051.553.154.756.3
GDP per capita (USD)9259621,0001,039-  
GDP (USD bn)46.349.653.156.8-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.26.96.87.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.31.14.86.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)7.116.015.815.5-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.2-2.1-1.2-1.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.137.037.738.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)13.45.310.43.811.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.85.04.03.33.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.65.25.33.53.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)16.0016.009.007.007.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2,1602,1812,2402,3002,298
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2,0402,1862,2372,2772,307
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.7-5.5-3.4-3.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.5-2.7-1.8-2.2-1.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.0-3.6-3.0-3.6-3.4
Exports (USD billion)4.84.94.54.45.6
Imports (USD billion)9.88.57.68.19.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.11.0-7.4-1.525.4
Imports (annual variation in %)-9.8-14.0-10.86.811.8
International Reserves (USD)4.14.35.95.05.6
External Debt (% of GDP)33.032.734.732.7-  

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Tanzania Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield14.730.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate2,3000.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market1.20.0 %Jan 06

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