Russia Industry September 2016

Russia

Russia: Industrial output contracts in September

Russian industrial production shrank in September, falling at the fastest pace seen in 8 months. Output decreased 0.8% year-on-year, which notably undershot the 0.6% rise the markets had expected and the 0.7% expansion seen in August.

September’s downturn was due to the all-important manufacturing sector, which swung from a 0.1% expansion in August to a 1.6% decrease in September. In contrast, mining and quarrying production picked up from August’s 1.8% expansion to a 2.1% increase and electricity, gas and water supply output accelerated to a 1.4% expansion (August: +1.3% year-on-year).

Data adjusted for seasonal factors showed that industrial production contracted 0.3% over the previous month in September, which contrasted the 0.5% expansion recorded in August.

Meanwhile, the trend continued to point to a slow recovery in the sector. The annual average variation in industrial production rose from minus 1.2% in August to minus 0.9% in September.

Industrial production suffered the worst contraction in six years in 2015 and this year our panel of analysts expects output to recover and expand 0.3%. The projection is unchanged from last month’s forecast. FocusEconomics panelists expect industrial production to increase 1.8% in 2017, which is also unchanged from last month’s forecast.


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