Mongolia Economic Outlook
October 18, 2016On 30 September, Mongolia requested financial assistance from the IMF to support the country’s economic program, which is intended to staunch a spiraling fiscal deficit, a severely weakened currency and a precipitous decline in foreign investment. The government’s plan includes prioritizing capital expenditure on certain infrastructure projects, salary cuts for civil servants, measures to reduce outstanding debt and the setup of an institution tasked with attracting investment. Mongolia’s seeking of IMF cash is also designed to reduce its dependence on China, which has filled the void left by the exodus of Western investors and supports the Mongolian tugrik by means of central bank currency swaps.
Mongolia Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||3,783||4,377||4,598||4,166||3,971|
|GDP (USD bn)||10.5||12.4||13.3||12.2||11.8|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||17.5||12.5||11.6||8.1||2.4|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-5.8||-6.8||-1.2||-3.7||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||32.7||51.3||67.3||76.5||-|
|Money (annual variation in %)||37.0||18.8||24.1||12.5||-5.5|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||9.2||14.3||10.5||12.8||6.6|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||12.25||13.25||10.50||12.00||12.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||1,378||1,378||1,660||1,888||1,993|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||1,258||1,353||1,516||1,815||1,968|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-26.2||-27.0||-36.2||-11.5||-4.6|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-2.8||-3.4||-4.8||-1.4||-0.5|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-1.8||-2.4||-2.1||0.5||0.9|
|Exports (USD billion)||4.8||4.4||4.3||5.8||4.7|
|Imports (USD billion)||6.6||6.7||6.4||5.2||3.8|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||65.6||-9.1||-2.5||35.1||-19.1|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||106||2.1||-5.8||-17.5||-27.5|
|International Reserves (USD)||2.5||4.1||2.2||1.7||1.3|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||91.4||124||144||172||183|
5 years of Mongolia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||2,339||0.26 %||Oct 25|
Mongolia Economic Growth
October 18, 2016Economic growth will be dragged down this year by low commodity prices, severe structural deficiencies and China’s economic slowdown. Analysts see the economy expanding 0.8% in 2016. In 2017, growth will accelerate to 2.4% as several mine construction projects get underway.