Mongolia Economic Outlook
June 21, 2022The economy shrank at the fastest pace in nearly two years in Q1. The contraction was mainly due to an over 25% fall in exports amid Chinese border closures and lockdowns under Beijing’s zero-tolerance Covid-19 policy; China is by far Mongolia’s largest trading partner. Investment also declined, while private consumption recovered amid the removal of pandemic-related restrictions. Turning to Q2, the crucial mining sector continued to contract in April–May, although at a much softer rate than in Q1. Other signs are more positive: Retail and wholesale trade surged in April despite spiking inflation, while the reopening of borders in February is buoying tourist arrivals, which reportedly quadrupled in the first five months of the year. To further support tourism, the government recently waived visa requirements for South Koreans, who comprise a significant proportion of visitors.
Mongolia Economic GrowthGrowth should accelerate slightly in 2022, as the fading impact of the pandemic supports consumption and tourism. However, forecasts have been downgraded significantly so far this year due to lockdowns in China and the Russia-Ukraine war. Continued restrictions in China, further sanctions on Russia, possible social unrest over high inflation, and elevated public debt are risks. FocusEconomics panelists project a GDP expansion of 2.9% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.2% in 2023.
Mongolia Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||3,847||3,578||3,595||4,051||4,211|
|GDP (USD bn)||11.8||11.2||11.4||13.1||13.9|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.5||1.4||5.4||7.0||4.9|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-5.0||-15.3||-6.3||0.0||-1.7|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||62.1||87.6||84.6||73.3||-|
|Money (annual variation in %)||-5.5||21.0||30.5||22.8||7.0|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||6.6||1.1||4.2||6.8||7.3|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||13.00||14.00||11.00||11.00||11.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||-||-||-||-||-|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||-||-||-||-||-|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-8.1||-6.3||-10.1||-16.8||-15.6|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-0.9||-0.7||-1.2||-2.2||-2.2|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||0.9||1.6||1.9||1.1||1.5|
|Exports (USD billion)||4.7||4.9||6.2||7.0||7.6|
|Imports (USD billion)||3.8||3.4||4.3||5.9||6.1|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-19.1||5.4||26.0||13.1||8.7|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-27.5||-11.6||29.2||35.5||4.3|
|International Reserves (USD)||1.3||1.3||3.0||3.5||4.3|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||187||231||252||224||-|
5 years of Mongolia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||2,735||-0.04 %||Jan 01|
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