Lebanon Economic Outlook
October 4, 2016Lebanon’s economic headwinds continue to mount as the country remains stuck in a political impasse and suffers the effects of Syria’s civil war. The economy bore up remarkably well in H1 despite the circumstances, with a moderate recovery in tourist numbers and construction activity. A better-than-expected inflow of deposits has also improved the outlook of private banks and their ability to finance government debt, which prompted S&P Global Ratings to revise Lebanon’s outlook from negative to stable in early September. However, the presidential vacuum in Lebanon since 2014 has meant that only urgent measures have been passed. This has delayed much needed reforms to address scarce legislation on capital controls, spurring the imminent risk of the country being blacklisted as a tax haven at the request of G-20 Finance ministers. In addition, it has left the Central Bank as the sole promoter of economic growth, whose stimulus programs have proven helpful yet insufficient.
Lebanon Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||9,144||9,966||10,655||11,093||-|
|GDP (USD bn)||40.1||44.1||47.6||50.0||-|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||0.9||2.8||3.0||2.0||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-5.9||-8.4||-8.7||-6.0||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||134||131||134||134||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||3.1||10.1||1.1||-0.7||-3.4|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||5.0||6.6||4.8||1.9||-3.7|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||1,506||1,504||1,507||1,510||1,508|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-15.1||-24.3||-26.7||-24.9||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-13.9||-14.7||-15.3||-16.6||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||5.4||5.6||5.2||4.5||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||19.4||20.3||20.5||21.1||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-0.7||3.7||-7.9||-12.2||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||9.2||5.1||0.8||3.1||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||33.7||37.2||36.7||39.5||38.8|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||52.2||55.3||54.9||51.2||-|
5 years of Lebanon economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||1,510||0.0 %||Oct 20|
|Stock Market||1,164||0.06 %||Oct 07|
Lebanon Economic Growth
October 4, 2016Lebanon’s economic stability continues to be jeopardized by multiple external risks and heightened domestic uncertainty. FocusEconomics panelists project that GDP will grow 1.1% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2017, the panel sees the economy expanding 1.6%.