Kosovo Economic Forecast

Kosovo Economic Outlook

October 5, 2021

Economic growth rose to 16.3% year-on-year in Q2 from 4.2% in Q1. The reading reflected skyrocketing exports as well as firming domestic demand, with fixed investment and household spending growth picking up pace. Private consumption benefited from the easing of restrictions from 1 June and increased employment levels. Industrial activity also gained steam in the quarter, with growth in virtually all subsectors. Turning to Q3, the panorama turned less rosy. Consumer loans contracted on average in July–August, while merchandise exports also dropped in the same period. Moreover, a recent flare-up of tensions with Serbia over a border dispute could weigh on sentiment and activity, and derail progress in normalizing relations. Lastly, lingering Covid-19 restrictions will limit activity somewhat heading into Q4.

Kosovo Economic Growth

Growth is set to return this year as the economy recoups some of 2020’s pandemic-induced losses, before accelerating next year. Progress on the vaccination front and the government’s recovery program should bolster domestic and foreign demand in 2022. However, tensions with Serbia and lingering uncertainty over the course of the pandemic cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 4.8% in 2021 and 5.0% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Kosovo Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)1.81.81.81.81.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,5773,6983,9594,3054,293
GDP per capita (EUR)3,2233,3423,5043,6453,835
GDP (USD bn)6.46.77.27.97.9
GDP (EUR bn)5.86.16.46.77.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.14.14.23.84.2
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.6-1.1-1.1-2.6-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)13.114.416.216.917.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.50.31.51.12.7
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.5-7.9-5.2-7.6-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.5-0.5-0.3-0.5-0.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.1-2.3-2.5-2.7-2.8
Exports (EUR billion)0.30.30.40.40.4
Imports (USD billion)2.93.13.53.94.0
Imports (EUR billion)2.42.62.83.13.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-0.6-4.522.9-0.44.4
Imports (annual variation in %)2.16.99.49.63.8
International Reserves (EUR)0.70.60.70.80.9

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Kosovo Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield4.740.0 %Nov 30
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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