Japan Industry


Industrial production rebounds in September

In September, industrial production expanded 1.0% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted the 1.2% decrease recorded in August. September’s print, was a surprising contrast to the 0.6% drop that market analysts had expected.

According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the categories that made the greatest contributions to the monthly drop were chemicals, electronic parts and devices, as well as electrical machinery. As a result of September’s increase, the government upgraded its basic assessment of industrial production, stating that output was "moving sideways".

On an annual basis, industrial output fell 0.9% in September, which was below the 0.4% drop tallied in the previous month. Annual average growth in industrial production inched down from minus 1.0% in August to minus 1.1% in September.

The Survey of Production Forecast showed that manufacturers are becoming more pessimistic. They now expect industrial output to have recorded a month-on-month 4.1% expansion in October, which is below the 4.4% increase that was forecast in the previous month’s survey. Manufacturers expect a 0.3% drop in November.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see industrial production falling 0.3% in 2015, which is down 0.4 percentage points over the previous month’s projection. For 2016, the panel expects industrial production to rise 1.8%, which is down 0.3 percentage points over the previous month’s estimate.

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Japan Industry Chart

Japan Industry September 2015

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted industrial production and year-on-year growth rate in %.
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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