Iran Economic Forecast

Iran Economic Outlook

October 4, 2016

Growth at the outset of SH 2016, which started in March 2016, has likely been propelled by the lifting of economic sanctions in January and higher crude prices. The OPEC’s tentative deal to curtail oil production, if it materializes at the 30 November meeting, could shore up crude prices and bolster oil revenues. However, Iran’s intention to keep pumping oil until it reaches the pre-sanction level of 4.0 million barrels per day threatens to pose a serious hurdle to reaching a final agreement. In an attempt to speed up oil-related investments, the Parliament endorsed the new Iran Petroleum Contract on 17 September, which is more aligned to international standards.

Iran Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)7,5827,6115,7115,229-  
GDP (USD bn)570578440408-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.7-6.6-1.94.3-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.2-1.7-1.03.1-  
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.8-0.6-0.9-1.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)8.916.815.415.8-  
Money (annual variation in %)20.21.533.228.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)20.541.219.716.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)21.530.534.715.6-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)12,25712,27924,79728,05030,165
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)10,99612,28721,43025,26628,965
Current Account (% of GDP)  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)58.523.426.415.9-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)67.828.632.021.4-  
Exports (USD billion)14697.393.186.5-  
Imports (USD billion)78.068.761.265.1-  
Exports (annual variation in %)29.3-33.3-4.3-7.1-  
Imports (annual variation in %)3.4-11.9-11.06.4-  
International Reserves (USD)92.2104118126-  

Sample Report

5 years of Iran economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.


Iran Economic Growth

October 4, 2016

Increased oil production, slightly higher crude prices and a relatively diversified economy, along with Iran’s return to the global markets, are expected to prop up growth for years to come. Panelists expect GDP to expand 3.8% in SH 2016, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 4.5% in SH 2017.

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