Georgia Economic Forecast

Georgia Economic Outlook

November 2, 2021

The economic recovery seemed to lose momentum in Q3, after GDP rose at the strongest pace in nearly a decade in Q2. Economic activity decelerated markedly in July–September, amid the reintroduction of some lockdown measures, and as the base effect that flattered Q2’s result diminished. Moreover, merchandise export growth more than halved in Q3, suggesting that the recovery in foreign demand had already peaked. Economic prospects appear relatively bright going into the final quarter of 2021, however, thanks to an accelerating vaccine rollout, which should help contain rising new Covid-19 cases. In politics, the ruling Georgian Dream party won a commanding lead in a municipal election held on 3 October, just a day after officials arrested ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili. The arrest sparked widespread protests, fueling concerns over lingering political uncertainty.

Georgia Economic Growth

The economy is set to expand at a softer pace next year, following this year’s projected rebound. That said, overall growth should remain upbeat, spearheaded by healthy household spending and accelerating investment activity. Risks to the outlook include new Covid-19 variants, lingering political instability at home and regional geopolitical uncertainty. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 5.8% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and to grow 5.0% in 2023.

Georgia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.73.73.73.73.7
GDP per capita (USD)4,0164,0614,3614,7184,767
GDP per capita (EUR)3,6183,6683,8663,9994,275
GDP (USD bn)14.915.116.217.617.7
GDP (EUR bn)13.513.714.414.915.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.02.94.84.85.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.2-1.5-0.5-0.8-1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)36.840.339.939.941.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-3.814.827.915.9-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.02.16.02.64.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.006.507.257.009.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.402.662.592.682.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.272.372.512.532.82
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)2.612.813.103.063.21
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2.522.622.832.993.15
Current Account (% of GDP)-11.8-12.5-8.1-6.8-5.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-1.9-1.3-1.2-0.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.0-3.9-3.8-4.1-3.7
Exports (USD billion)3.02.93.64.44.9
Imports (USD billion)7.06.77.48.58.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-24.4-5.224.623.412.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-15.8-3.29.415.51.9
International Reserves (USD)2.52.83.03.33.5
External Debt (% of GDP)102105107101105

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Georgia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate2.860.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.55 %Jan 07

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