Bahrain Economic Outlook
October 4, 2016The economy decelerated significantly in Q2 2016 and grew 2.4% annually, due to a contraction in the all-important oil sector. This contrasted the sector’s double-digit growth in Q1, which had fueled healthy GDP growth too. Taking the first two quarters together, Bahrain still shifted into a higher gear overall compared to H1 2015. In the political arena, the government-backed decision to dissolve the main opposition group—the Shiite Al-Wefaq—was backed by the Bahrain’s High Civil Court on 22 September.
Bahrain Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||25,441||26,383||27,689||27,913||25,995|
|GDP (USD bn)||28.7||30.4||32.5||33.4||31.8|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.1||3.4||5.4||4.5||2.9|
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||6.6||1.1||4.7||3.0||-|
|Investment (annual variation in %)||-35.1||27.5||-13.7||0.9||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-0.3||-2.0||-3.3||-3.6||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||28.9||33.6||41.3||42.0||-|
|Money (annual variation in %)||3.4||4.1||8.2||6.5||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||-0.4||2.8||3.3||2.7||1.8|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||0.50||0.50||0.50||0.50||0.75|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||0.38||0.38||0.38||0.38||0.38|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||0.38||0.38||0.38||0.38||0.38|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||11.2||7.2||7.8||3.3||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||3.2||2.2||2.5||1.1||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||7.5||6.5||7.3||7.4||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||19.6||19.7||20.9||20.7||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||12.1||13.2||13.6||13.3||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||44.0||0.6||5.9||-0.8||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||8.2||9.3||3.2||-2.5||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||4.5||5.2||5.3||5.2||-|
5 years of Bahrain economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||0.38||-0.03 %||Oct 20|
|Stock Market||1,152||0.65 %||Oct 20|
Bahrain Economic Growth
October 4, 2016The decision to dissolve the main Shiite opposition party is likely to heighten tensions in a Shiite-majority country ruled by a Sunni government. However, important infrastructure projects will continue to support Bahrain’s economy this year. Analysts polled by FocusEconomics expect GDP to grow 2.2% in 2016, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, our panelists project that growth will tick up to 2.3%.