Bahrain Economic Forecast

Bahrain Economic Outlook

June 7, 2022

Annual GDP growth has likely remained solid so far this year. The non-oil sector should be spearheading growth in H1: Tourism numbers will have picked up thanks to large events drawing international interest. The scrapping of all remaining Covid-19 restrictions halfway through February is expected to have provided further support. Meanwhile, dynamics in the oil sector should be providing further impetus to economic growth. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, oil prices have climbed up and averaged above the country’s fiscal breakeven price through May, boding well for investment and the government’s fiscal consolidation plan. Meanwhile, in late May, the IMF concluded its Article IV mission in the country, and praised the government’s policy response to the pandemic. The Fund also encouraged the kingdom to devote the unexpected oil windfall to structural reforms.

Bahrain Economic Growth

Economic growth is seen accelerating this year, following last year’s partial recovery from the pandemic-induced downturn. The favorable oil outlook bodes well for the country slashing its fiscal deficit and reducing its debt levels. The current account balance should also benefit. That said, the volatility of oil prices is a key factor to watch. FocusEconomics analysts project the economy to expand 3.3% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2023.

Bahrain Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)1.41.41.51.51.5
GDP per capita (USD)22,64522,59724,33425,42425,461
GDP (USD bn)31.032.235.337.738.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.93.53.81.82.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-8.510.811.04.7-  
Unemployment Rate3.54.34.1-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-13.0-13.6-10.0-6.3-4.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)60.471.879.580.783.0
Money (annual variation in %)2.91.24.22.411.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.92.81.42.11.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.751.001.752.752.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.380.380.380.380.38
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)0.380.380.380.380.38
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.4-4.6-4.1-6.4-2.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.8-1.5-1.4-2.4-0.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.8-0.8-0.5-1.10.9
Exports (USD billion)16.512.815.518.018.1
Imports (USD billion)15.713.616.019.017.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-29.6-22.721.416.20.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-20.6-13.518.318.8-9.6
International Reserves (USD)3.12.22.31.93.4

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Bahrain Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate0.380.03 %Jan 01

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