Albania Economic Forecast

Albania Economic Outlook

October 5, 2021

National accounts data for the second quarter revealed that GDP expanded at the fastest pace on record (Q2: +17.9% yoy; Q1: +5.5% yoy), albeit largely due to a low base effect. The improvement was broad-based, with all components registering quicker growth rates. Most notably, exports skyrocketed amid easing restrictions across key trading partners. Turning to Q3, momentum seemingly carried over—despite the fading base effect—with both merchandise imports and exports expanding at robust rates in July and August, while tourist arrivals approached pre-pandemic levels in the same months. Lastly, on 17 September, parliament approved Prime Minister Edi Rama’s cabinet picks, boding well for the implementation of the PM’s agenda, which centers on the economic recovery and reducing public debt.

Albania Economic Growth

The economy is set to rebound this year on the back of strengthening consumer and capital spending, before growth moderates somewhat in 2022. The gradual reopening of economies abroad should continue to bolster the all-important tourism industry. Nevertheless, delays in EU membership talks and risks stemming from the health crisis weigh on the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 6.3% in 2021. In 2022, the panel sees the economy growing 4.3%, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Albania Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)2.92.92.92.92.9
GDP per capita (USD)3,9554,1414,6385,2665,425
GDP per capita (EUR)3,4983,6874,0164,4394,735
GDP (USD bn)11.411.913.315.115.6
GDP (EUR bn)10.110.611.512.813.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.23.33.84.12.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.11.92.63.23.3
Investment (annual variation in %)3.82.56.72.6-3.1
Unemployment Rate17.314.213.412.311.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.1-1.8-2.0-1.6-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)74.073.270.268.066.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.91.32.02.01.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.751.251.251.001.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)126.1128.3110.8108.1108.6
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.8-7.7-7.5-6.8-7.7
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.9-0.8-0.9-0.9-1.0
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.3-2.6-2.8-2.9-3.1
Exports (EUR billion)0.80.70.81.00.9
Imports (EUR billion)3.13.33.63.94.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-17.2-7.511.823.7-8.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.48.09.26.55.0
International Reserves (EUR)2.92.93.03.43.4

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Albania Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate108.6-0.56 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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