Energy Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Energy Commodities Price Outlook

Outlook remains positive on higher oil prices

The outlook for energy prices remains positive. Prices are projected to increase 11.7% year-on-year in Q4 2017 on the back of higher prices for crude oil and its derivatives. Moreover, Henry Hub natural gas prices should continue extending last year’s gains this year, but at a more moderate rhythm. Meanwhile, forecasts for uranium suggest that the price of the radioactive element will recover this year from the losses in 2016.

Crude oil prices, which have risen substantially following the news of OPEC’s formal agreement to cut production, will lead the improvement in energy prices and are projected to average USD 55.4 per barrel in Q2 2017 and to approach the USD 60.0 per barrel mark in Q4 2017. Analysts and market participants remain confident that the crude oil market will slowly rebalance in H2 2017, reflecting OPEC and non-OPEC production cuts and a gradual decline in inventories. However, full compliance among OPEC members—who have a poor record on this matter—remains key to reducing inventories at a time when global stocks remain stubbornly high. OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreed to reduce output by a combined 1.8 million barrels a day (mbd) for the first half this year and the agreement, the first one since 2008, could be extended for a further six months, should market conditions allow it. Meanwhile, the response from U.S. producers to higher prices will continue to be a key determinant for the future of the rebalancing in the oil market. 

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Energy Commodities Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Brent Crude Oil111.67  108.69  98.9  52.42  43.83  
WTI Crude Oil94.08  97.97  93.02  48.68  43.28  
Gasoline3.04  2.92  2.66  1.94  1.44  
Natural Gas2.76  3.73  4.34  2.61  2.49  
Thermal Coal98.17  85.83  72.54  60.38  63.03  
Coking Coal 252.1  147.28  116.6  90  120.59  
Uranium48.86  38.66  33.44  36.81  26.45  
Gasoil953.38  918.88  837.79  488.16  390.61  
Ethanol2.37  2.51  2.39  1.6  1.59  

Note:
Brent Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
WTI Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
Gasoline prices in USD per gallon (gal).
Natural Gas prices in USD per Million of British Thermal Units (MMBtu).
Thermal Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coking Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Uranium prices in USD per pound (lb).
Gasoil prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Ethanol prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities

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