Energy Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Energy Commodities Price Outlook

Oil prices under pressure despite OPEC deal

FocusEconomics analysts downgraded their view of energy prices this month, despite a recent deal by the world’s largest oil producers to extend production cuts. Although the agreement is designed to help stabilize the oil market, reduce the massive oil glut and support prices, the measures are not likely to go far enough to provide substantial support. Moreover, compliance concerns among the member nations persist, threatening the effectiveness of the deal.

In Q4 2017, panelists see the FocusEconomics energy price index averaging 101.6, down from last month’s 102.3 forecast. The downwards revision is due to lower forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil, while six commodities were left unchanged. Thermal coal was the only commodity to see its price forecast upgraded. Despite the downgrade, the rebalancing of the energy market is still seen as broadly on track and the forecast would represent an 11.4% price gain over Q4 2016. In 2018, panelists see the index rising further to 108.2. 

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Energy Commodities Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Brent Crude Oil111.67  108.69  98.9  52.42  43.83  
WTI Crude Oil94.08  97.97  93.02  48.68  43.28  
Gasoline3.04  2.92  2.66  1.94  1.44  
Natural Gas2.76  3.73  4.34  2.61  2.49  
Thermal Coal98.17  85.83  72.54  60.38  63.03  
Coking Coal 252.1  147.28  116.6  90  120.59  
Uranium48.86  38.66  33.44  36.81  26.45  
Gasoil953.38  918.88  837.79  488.16  390.61  
Ethanol2.37  2.51  2.39  1.6  1.59  

Note:
Brent Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
WTI Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
Gasoline prices in USD per gallon (gal).
Natural Gas prices in USD per Million of British Thermal Units (MMBtu).
Thermal Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coking Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Uranium prices in USD per pound (lb).
Gasoil prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Ethanol prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities

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