Energy Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Energy Commodities Price Outlook

Prospects downgraded again amid massive supply glut

Despite a rebound in prices in July, FocusEconomics analysts cut their forecasts for the energy market again this month. Rising output from Libya, Nigeria and the U.S. continue to threaten the success of a production cut deal by the world’s largest producers and the massive supply glut shows few signs of receding. However, continued compliance and rising demand should help prices end 2017 above last year’s level and stricter cuts or the inclusion of more countries in the production cut deal are upside risks to our forecast. 

In Q4 2017, panelists see the FocusEconomics energy price index averaging 94.3, down from last month’s forecast of 99.3. The downward revision is due to lower forecasts for five commodities, including Brent and WTI crude oils, and large cuts to gasoline and uranium price forecasts. Despite the cut in projections this month, a moderate rebalancing of the energy market is still seen broadly in place and Q4’s forecast would represent a 3.3% price gain over Q4 2016. In 2018, panelists see the index rising further to 96.2. 

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Energy Commodities Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Brent Crude Oil111.67  108.69  98.9  52.42  43.83  
WTI Crude Oil94.08  97.97  93.02  48.68  43.28  
Gasoline3.04  2.92  2.66  1.94  1.44  
Natural Gas2.76  3.73  4.34  2.61  2.49  
Thermal Coal98.17  85.83  72.54  60.38  63.03  
Coking Coal 252.1  147.28  116.6  90  120.59  
Uranium48.86  38.66  33.44  36.81  26.45  
Gasoil953.38  918.88  837.79  488.16  390.61  
Ethanol2.37  2.51  2.39  1.6  1.59  

Note:
Brent Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
WTI Crude Oil prices in USD per barrel (bbl).
Gasoline prices in USD per gallon (gal).
Natural Gas prices in USD per Million of British Thermal Units (MMBtu).
Thermal Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coking Coal prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Uranium prices in USD per pound (lb).
Gasoil prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Ethanol prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities

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