Base Metals Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Base Metals Price Outlook

Positive global backdrop fuels slight pick-up 

An improving global economy is seen putting upward pressure on base metals prices and our analysts see the FocusEconomics base metal price index averaging 65.2 in Q4, which represents a 4.5% annual increase from Q4 2016. In Q4 2018, the index is seen rising slightly to 65.4.

After soaring in the first quarter of the year, aluminium prices are seen continuing to rise on an annual basis in the reminder of the year although at a cooler pace. Supply constraints are fueling increasing prices, although concerns over China’s economy continue to hurt investor sentiment. The positive momentum in copper prices is also expected to wane, although prices are still seen ending the year 7.1% above Q4 2016’s level due to tighter supply and a dynamic U.S. economy. Meanwhile, prices for iron ore have plunged since the start of the year but FocusEconomics analysts see a slight pick-up from current levels by year-end.    

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Base Metals Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Aluminium2020.88  1845.86  1867.48  1663.69  1604.6  
Aluminium Alloy1935.97  1797.84  1950.43  1720.53  1553.26  
Alumina433.69  426.39  421.3  387.42  320.71  
Copper7954.23  7330.44  6863.26  5508.57  4871.3  
Nickel17522.38  15022.53  16897.92  11834.73  9596.5  
Lead2062.45  2139.23  2095  1787.3  1866.99  
Zinc1948.16  1910.09  2162.01  1929.03  2092.83  
Tin21099.76  22272.66  21878.75  16053.44  17960.96  
Iron Ore131.83  136.58  97.34  55.82  58.61  
Steel (USA)656.57  630.49  657.79  462.25  517.96  
Steel (Europe)659.47  614.28  568.37  420.18  439.66  

Note:
Aluminium prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Alluminum Alloy prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Alumina prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Copper prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Nickel prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Lead prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Zinc prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Tin prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Iron ore prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Steel (USA) prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Steel (Europe) prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities

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