Base Metals Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Base Metals Price Outlook

Supply movements dominate forecasts

Divergent outlooks across base metal commodities led our analysts to hold the FocusEconomics base metal price index broadly steady, just a notch down from last month’s forecast. The index is seen averaging 65.1 in Q4, which represents a 4.4% increase from Q4 2016, before rising slightly to 65.7 in Q4 2018.

This month, FocusEconomics analysts cut their price projections for five metals, including iron ore, nickel and zinc. Uncertainty surrounding China’s economy has dampened investor sentiment, and reports of high iron ore inventories in Chinese ports along with intentions to tighten credit conditions have weighed on the outlook for iron ore. Nickel supply is also on the rise, particularly due to ramped up production by the Philippines and Indonesia. Balancing this month’s downgrades are upward revisions to the prices of aluminum, copper, lead, tin and European steel. Labor unrests have threatened to interfere with copper output, while soaring Chinese production is a downside risk to aluminum prices.   

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Base Metals Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Aluminium2020.88  1845.86  1867.48  1663.69  1604.6  
Aluminium Alloy1935.97  1797.84  1950.43  1720.53  1553.26  
Alumina433.69  426.39  421.3  387.42  320.71  
Copper7954.23  7330.44  6863.26  5508.57  4871.3  
Nickel17522.38  15022.53  16897.92  11834.73  9596.5  
Lead2062.45  2139.23  2095  1787.3  1866.99  
Zinc1948.16  1910.09  2162.01  1929.03  2092.83  
Tin21099.76  22272.66  21878.75  16053.44  17960.96  
Iron Ore131.83  136.58  97.34  55.82  58.61  
Steel (USA)656.57  630.49  657.79  462.25  517.96  
Steel (Europe)659.47  614.28  568.37  420.18  439.66  

Aluminium prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Alluminum Alloy prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Alumina prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Copper prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Nickel prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Lead prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Zinc prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Tin prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Iron ore prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Steel (USA) prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Steel (Europe) prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
All prices are average of period (aop).

Sample Report

Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities


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