Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook

Crops lead decline in prices

Prices for agricultural raw materials were weak in Q3, following a strong rebound in Q2. The decline in prices was broad-based and was particularly hefty in grains such as corn, oats, soybeans and wheat, due to higher crops.

In the northern hemisphere, conditions for corn were mixed. While in the U.S. an above-average crop is expected this year, significant areas in Canada and the EU experienced adverse conditions and thus reduced slightly their yield expectations. In the southern hemisphere, planting is underway under generally favorable conditions in Argentina and Brazil. For wheat, prospects are positive in the northern hemisphere for the spring wheat season that is drawing to a close. Also, near-record yields are expected in Kazakhstan. In the southern hemisphere, conditions remain favorable, with the exception of Australia, which experienced frost that will likely constrain its yield. For soybeans, conditions remain generally favorable in the northern hemisphere, with good yield prospects expected in the U.S. That said, dry conditions in Ontario, Canada, have lowered expected yields. In the south, planting began in Brazil.

Overall production in corn, soybeans and wheat is set to reach new record highs this year. Consequently, analysts expect that markets of these grains will remain oversupplied. After a projected 7.0% year-on-year increase in Q4 2016—revised down from the 9.7% increase expected last month—prices are expected to slow substantially next year. Forecasters expect agricultural prices to rise just 0.8% in Q4 2017.

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Agricultural Historical Price Data

2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  
Corn670.47  698.6  598.06  397.77  361.72  
Oats364.3  367.32  387.48  402.11  284.65  
Soybeans1297.74  1454.53  1419.78  1250.72  936.31  
Wheat705.93  749.42  699.94  578.22  481.76  
Cocoa2977.25  2390.93  2441.23  3064.48  3136.98  
Coffee247.65  175.1  122.21  171.43  132.27  
Cotton132.6  74.43  79.63  73.38  61.47  
Sugar25.98  21.54  17.69  16.99  13.43  
Wool1278.63  1088.33  1071.7  1047.33  1198.43  

Corn prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Oats prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Soybeans prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Wheat prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Cocoa prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coffee prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Cotton prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Sugar prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Wool prices in AUD cents per kilogram (kg).
All prices are average of period (aop).

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Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities


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