Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Agricultural Commodities Price Outlook

Prices rebound on higher energy costs

Prices for most agricultural commodities rebounded at the beginning of Q4, following a generalized drop in Q3. The price performance of agricultural commodities varied considerably depending largely on their respective demand and supply conditions, yet the rebound observed at the beginning of Q4 is mainly the result of the impact of higher energy prices, since agriculture is energy intensive.

The outlook for agricultural commodities remains positive this year as analysts forecast a 5.0% year-on-year increase in Q4 2016. This month’s projection revised down from the 7.0% increase expected last month and mainly reflects the impact of higher energy prices—fuel, fertilizers and other energy costs—and the La Niña weather phenomenon. Even if La Niña intensifies, the impact is expected to be limited as most agricultural markets remain oversupplied. After a projected 5.0% year-on-year increase in the final quarter of 2016, prices are expected to slow substantially next year. Forecasters expect agricultural prices to rise 2.8% in Q4 2017.

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Agricultural Historical Price Data

2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  
Corn670.47  698.6  598.06  397.77  361.72  
Oats364.3  367.32  387.48  402.11  284.65  
Soybeans1297.74  1454.53  1419.78  1250.72  936.31  
Wheat705.93  749.42  699.94  578.22  481.76  
Cocoa2977.25  2390.93  2441.23  3064.48  3136.98  
Coffee247.65  175.1  122.21  171.43  132.27  
Cotton132.6  74.43  79.63  73.38  61.47  
Sugar25.98  21.54  17.69  16.99  13.43  
Wool1278.63  1088.33  1071.7  1047.33  1198.43  

Note:
Corn prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Oats prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Soybeans prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Wheat prices in USD cents per bushel (bu).
Cocoa prices in USD per metric ton (mt).
Coffee prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Cotton prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Sugar prices in USD cents per pound (lb).
Wool prices in AUD cents per kilogram (kg).
All prices are average of period (aop).

Sample Report

Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities

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