Major Economies Economic Outlook
Our panelists see GDP growth in major advanced economies easing slightly in 2024 from 2023, though projections have been upgraded in recent months—largely on rosier forecasts for the U.S. economy. Tight monetary policy in North America and Europe will cap momentum in H1, though rate cuts in these regions should spur an uptick in economic activity in H2.
Major Economies Inflation
In February, inflation fell in Canada, the Euro area and the UK but rose in Japan and the U.S. Inflation should average lower in 2024 than in 2023 in all major advanced economies on softer commodity prices, higher bases of comparison and the lagged impact of past rate hikes. By Q4, inflation in most major economies should average only slightly above central banks’ 2.0% targets.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for Major Economies from 2010 to 2023.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.8 | -4.3 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 1.4 | -5.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 3.5 | -4.1 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -1.5 | -4.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.8 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.9 | -11.5 | -8.7 | - | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 114 | 134 | 128 | 123 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.5 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 |
| CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) | 0.95 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 3.46 | 4.72 |
| Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) | 57.89 | 56.08 | 57.57 | 59.78 | 61.96 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 49,899 | 48,749 | 53,856 | 54,700 | 57,988 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.1 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -2.2 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 5,938 | 5,337 | 6,436 | 7,071 | 6,967 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 6,661 | 6,040 | 7,399 | 8,712 | 8,013 |