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Our reports feature the Consensus Forecast (mean average), along with best- and worst-case scenarios. Find out how FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports can help you meet your business goals.

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Latest Reports

  • March 29, 2017

    Political uncertainties threaten nascent global economic recovery

    The strong momentum in the global economy in Q4 has carried over to this year, according to available economic data for Q1. Global GDP is set to expand 2.8% year-on-year in Q1, matching Q4’s result. The recovery, however, appears to be uneven as developed countries are leading most of this year’s upswing in global growth, with robust domestic demand buttressing growth in the Euro area and the United States. While the former is benefiting from strong household spending due to a declining unemployment rate and an accommodative monetary policy, growth in the United States is being propelled by gains in household wealth and a turnaround in investment as a result of a rebound in oil-drilling activity. Despite subdued private consumption, a weak yen and a pickup in global demand are fueling economic activity in Japan.

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  • April 12, 2017

    Region is expected to have returned to growth in Q1

    Uncertainty related to the potential course of U.S. trade policy and to a more challenging external scenario for Latin America has receded somewhat in the past month. Indeed, the perception of a coordinated global growth pickup seems to have gained momentum at the outset of this year. In line with a synchronized recovery in most emerging economies, the signs of recovery that began to show at the beginning of the year have also strengthened in Latin America. Our preliminary Consensus estimate suggests that the aggregate GDP for the region increased 0.2% year-on-year in Q1 2017, which, if confirmed, will mark a return to growth in Latin America, following five consecutive quarters of contraction.

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  • April 12, 2017

    Tourism, remittances and stronger global demand propel growth in Q4

    Although economic activity decelerated markedly last year, growth in Central America and the Caribbean gained some steam at the end of 2016. According to preliminary estimates, the region expanded 2.8% annually in Q4 2016, marking an acceleration from Q3’s 2.1% rise. The region’s economy is benefiting from a strengthening labor market in the United States, which is boosting all-important remittances. Rising tourist arrivals in some countries, higher commodity prices and an uptick in global demand are also spurring economic growth in Central America and the Caribbean. Q4’s growth momentum has likely carried into Q1, with our panel of analysts estimating that the region’s GDP expanded 3.0% in Q1.

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  • April 26, 2017

    Economy maintains momentum at the start of 2017

    Preliminary figures for the economy of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) showed that activity remained firm at the start of 2017. The economy expanded 4.7% annually in Q1 2017, matching Q4 2016’s result. While the overall figure illustrates healthy growth, performance was mixed across the region’s different economies. In Singapore, growth eased from Q4’s two-year high amid a pullback in industrial activity, while GDP figures disappointed in Vietnam. In the latter case, activity lost wind as a new tax on natural resources and declining output from mature oil fields dented mining activity, and a disruption in smartphone supply chains weighed on manufacturing output.

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  • April 26, 2017

    ESA continues defying domestic and global headwinds 

    Preliminary Q1 data for East and South Asia (ESA) corroborate that Q4’s healthy growth momentum carried into this year. China’s economy accelerated to a one-and-a-half year high, bringing regional growth to 6.2%. While Q1’s aggregate reading matched Q4’s result, it exceeded the 6.1% increase that our panel of analysts had projected last month. On top of China’s healthy performance, which is translating into stronger regional demand, the region is benefiting from sustained expansions in developed economies and improvements in some emerging market commodity exporters as a result of higher prices for raw materials. Moreover, despite a tighter monetary policy in the United States, financial conditions remain loose in other key economies.

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  • March 29, 2017

    Election season has arrived

    The Eurozone’s jam-packed 2017 election cycle is in full swing, taking center stage in market discourse. Results of the first vote in the Netherlands saw the country shrug off earlier worries that the far-right could make significant inroads as Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) lost by a sound margin. While the vote delivered a highly fragmented parliament, boding poorly for a strong and effective government, populist forces performed poorer than expected, suggesting that the threat to the Eurozone from anti-EU parties could be overblown. Overall, the country’s relations with the European Union should proceed largely as usual, reducing risks of political clashes over policy.

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  • April 5, 2017

    Investment shifts from economic drag to boost

    Economic activity is gathering modest momentum in the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Monthly economic indicators are pointing to a pick-up in growth at the onset of 2017, after GDP expanded 2.9% over the same period of the previous year in Q4 2016. Tightening labor markets, loose monetary policy and fiscal measures are contributing to a consumption spree in the region, which is being reflected in retail sales and confidence data. Moreover, fixed investment is set for a rebound, after being hampered by lower withdrawal of EU development funds last year. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.1% in Q1 and picking up further in H2 of this year. 

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  • April 5, 2017

    Economy ends 2016 on positive note

    Complete data for the economy of South-Eastern Europe (SEE) shows that activity picked up in the fourth quarter, more strongly than initially estimated. GDP expanded 3.0% annually in Q4, a notable improvement from Q3’s meagre 0.5% expansion and significantly above last month’s estimated 2.0% increase. The upward revision was due to stronger-than-expected growth in Turkey, which pushed up the regional figure. Government stimulus measures enacted after the failed July coup attempt finally bore fruit and drove household spending to the best result since Q2 2015 despite a worsening labor market and political uncertainties. 

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  • April 5, 2017

    Russia’s nascent recovery and higher commodity prices bode well for the region despite ongoing challenges

    Economic growth in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) improved only mildly in 2016, after a sharp deterioration in 2015 following a continued deceleration between 2011 and 2014. The region’s GDP increased just 0.1% last year, supported by the easing of the recession in Russia and a recovery trend in most commodity prices, which led to improvements in economic activity and regional trade. At the beginning of 2017, however, things began to look up as the region’s nascent recovery persisted and economic activity seemed to pick up further in the first quarter, showing resilience to uncertainty related to another U.S. interest rate increase in March. According to an estimate produced by FocusEconomics, the region’s GDP accelerated from a 0.5% year-on-year increase in Q4 to a 1.0% expansion in Q1.

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  • April 5, 2017

    Non-oil activity enters 2017 on a strong footing

    Economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) started the year on a mixed note as non-oil activities remained strong, while the oil sector deteriorated notably on the back of lower crude supply. China’s surprisingly robust start to the year and resilient domestic demand in the European Union and the United States are propping up global demand, which is reverberating positively across the MENA region. Moreover, higher oil prices are taking some pressure off the domestic financial markets, sending interest rates lower and stimulating private activity.

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  • April 26, 2017

    End of commodities super cycle causes poor economic performance in 2016

    After averaging about 5.0% from 2010 to 2014 and declining to 3.2% in 2015, Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) GDP growth descended abruptly to a mere 1.3% last year, its lowest level in over two decades. Our panelists had long anticipated the worsening of the economic situation, cutting their regional economic growth estimates almost uninterruptedly from early 2015. It came as no surprise that the end of the commodities super cycle in mid-2014, and the consequent crash in commodities prices, substantially affected many of the largest Sub-Saharan African economies which depend heavily on commodity exports, such as Angola, Nigeria and South Africa. Also, many countries in Eastern and Southern Africa experienced a severe drought caused by the El Niño weather phenomenon, which prompted a decline in agricultural production and cutbacks in hydroelectric generation, particularly in Ethiopia, Mozambique and Uganda.

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Latest Economic
News

  • Italy: Business confidence continues its ascent in April

    April 28, 2017

    The National Institute of Statistics (Istat) composite business confidence indicator (IESE, Istat Economic Sentiment Indicator), which covers the manufacturing, construction, service and retail sectors, rose from 105.1 in March to a multi-year high of 107.4 in April. All four categories of the indicator improved compared to March, with manufacturing registering the strongest result in over nine years on the back of higher order books and production expectations, while construction registered the best reading since April 2008 due to improved assessments regarding construction plans and higher employment expectations.

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  • Eurozone: Economic sentiment rises to multi-year high in April

    April 27, 2017

    Economic sentiment in the Eurozone improved to the best result since August 2007 in April, according to the European Commission (EC).

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  • Eurozone: ECB holds monetary policy

    April 27, 2017

    The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to hold interest rates, as widely expected, at its 27 April meeting and made no changes to its bond-buying program.

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