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Latest Reports
July 26, 2017
Economic recovery strengthens in Q2
The recovery in the global economy is gaining steam on the back of an improvement in both advanced economies and emerging-market countries. A preliminary estimate for the global economy shows that GDP expanded 3.1% annually in Q2, which is just a notch above the 3.0% increase that our Consensus Forecast had expected last month. The print beat the 3.0% rise in Q1 and represented the fastest growth in two years.
August 9, 2017
Election cycle casts long shadow on region’s growth prospects Economy starts year on a brighter-than-expected note as Argentina turns a corner
The Latin America economy has benefited from strengthening economic recoveries and, according to preliminary data, the region expanded 1.1% annually in Q2. The print was above the 0.8% increase in Q1, which had represented the first expansion after nearly two years of declining or stagnant activity. If confirmed, Q2’s figure would have marked the strongest growth in over three years.
August 9, 2017
Fiscal woes take center stage once again
The economy of the Central American and Caribbean region is expected to have hummed along in the second quarter, after having picked up for a second consecutive quarter in Q1. The FocusEconomics panel of economists pencils in growth of 3.0% for Q2, mirroring the soft expansion observed in Q1. The region’s economy likely benefited from buoyant growth in remittances from the U.S. and a further strengthening in global trade flows, but it was dragged down by ongoing fiscal and debt sagas across several countries and faltering momentum in prices for some key commodities.
July 19, 2017
Steady but not yet stellar
The economy of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) continued to jog along in the second quarter of 2017, according to a preliminary estimate of regional GDP compiled by FocusEconomics. Growth was steady at Q1’s 4.8% annually in Q2, coming in a notch below last month’s projection. While the ASEAN economy has managed to maintain healthy growth in the past quarters despite a number of uncertainties, growth has hovered around 4.6% since 2014 as a number of economies fail to grow at full speed.
July 20, 2017
Strong growth momentum continues in Q2
Surprisingly-resilient economic dynamics in China continue to lead growth in East and South Asia (ESA). A preliminary set of data for the region showed that aggregate GDP increased 6.2% year-on-year in Q2 2017 (Q1: +6.2% yoy), which was a notch above the 6.1% expansion that our panel of analysts had projected last month.
July 26, 2017
Surging activity puts spotlight on ECB
The Eurozone’s recovery has gone from modest to energetic in recent quarters, highlighted by a robust 0.6% increase in GDP over the previous quarter in Q1 2017. The reading marked the second-highest growth since pre-crisis years and was sustained by a better performance in the external sector along with a sound domestic economy. These tailwinds are likely to have remained in place in Q2 and incoming data is strong. Economic sentiment is at a multi-year high, while conditions in the labor market have improved further. Overall, FocusEconomics analysts project that GDP expanded a healthy 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q2.
August 2, 2017
Polish political jitters pose major downside risks to CEE economy
Growth in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) economy is expected to have remained buoyant in Q2, after starting the year on a bright note. FocusEconomics analysts expect regional GDP to have grown a robust 3.7% annually in the April to June period, which followed Q1’s strong 4.0% expansion. Behind the region’s healthy momentum is rebounding investment, chiefly thanks to European Union development funds, and solid demand for exports from the Eurozone. The Euro area’s economy has become a bright spot in global growth this year and this positive momentum is aiding the CEE economy, which is closely tied to the Eurozone.
August 2, 2017
SEE growth likely peaked in Q1
The economy of the South-Eastern Europe (SEE) region got off to a strong start to the year, buttressed by front-loaded growth in the Turkish and Romanian economies and increased European demand for foreign goods and services, which propelled growth in exports across SEE countries. The region’s economy expanded 4.1% in annual terms in the first quarter, a noteworthy improvement from the 3.0% increase seen in the previous quarter and the best result in nearly a year.
August 2, 2017
Growth hits nearly four-year high in Q2
The recovery has arrived in the Commonwealth of the Independent States (CIS) and growth is now hovering at the highest level since 2013. FocusEconomics analysts estimate that regional GDP grew 2.2% year-on-year in Q2, building on Q1’s more tepid 1.1% increase and marking the best result since Q4 2013. The positive momentum has become more broad-based throughout the region, and Azerbaijan is the only economy likely to have contracted in the April to June period. Moreover, a strengthening regional and global environment is supporting overseas sales throughout CIS and many countries have seen exports skyrocket this year.
August 2, 2017
Geopolitical risks continue to dominate the headlines
The Middle East and North Africa’s (MENA) economy is struggling with the reduction in crude oil production required to comply with the November deal among OPEC and non-OPEC members and lower-than-expected prices for oil. That said, booming economic activity in Iran and healthy dynamics among oil-importing nations are putting a floor underneath regional growth. According to a preliminary estimate that accounts for around 75% of the region’s nominal GDP, the MENA region expanded 4.0% annually in Q1, down from Q4’s 5.1% rise.
July 19, 2017
Q1 growth estimate revised down due to weak performance in Kenya
More complete data revealed that the economy of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) grew at a slower pace in Q1 than initially projected. According to an estimate compiled by FocusEconomics, regional GDP increased 2.0% annually in the first quarter of the year, a notch down from last month’s preliminary 2.1% estimate. Despite the downgrade, the figure still represents a strong acceleration from Q4 2016’s 1.4% expansion as an economic turnaround is taking place in the region after an abysmal 2016 characterized by slowing growth and worsening imbalances in many economies.
Latest Economic
News
India: Trade deficit widens in July
August 17, 2017
Recently released data related to India’s external sector showed that the trade deficit totaled USD 11.5 billion in July, which was a greater shortfall than the USD 7.8 billion gap recorded in July 2016 (June 2017: USD 12.9 billion deficit).
Philippines: Remittances continue to grow in June
August 16, 2017
In June, cash remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) expanded 5.7% from the same month of the previous year to USD 2.5 billion.
Indonesia: Retail sales surge in June
August 16, 2017
In June, retail sales increased 6.3% over the same month last year, above May’s 4.3% increase.
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