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Latest Reports
June 28, 2017
Political events take center stage; global growth remains strong
The global economy is ready to post another strong outturn in Q2 on the back of healthy economic dynamics in both emerging and advanced economies. Analysts polled for this month’s Consensus Forecast expect that the global economy will grow 3.0% annually in Q2, matching the result in Q1. The United States is expected to lead the pack following the disappointing result in Q1, while the Euro area and Japan are seen expanding at relatively decent rates. Advanced economies are benefiting from still accommodative monetary policy conditions and tighter labor markets, and the recent decline in energy prices is putting money into consumer’s pockets. Despite some signs of stabilization, global demand remains strong, propelling the external sector.
June 14, 2017
Latin American economy rebounds in Q1 after long and painful contraction
The Latin American economy expanded for the first time in nearly two years in Q1, according to the latest regional data. Our Consensus estimate suggests that the aggregate GDP for the region increased 0.7% year-on-year in Q1 2017 (Q4 2016: -0.4% yoy), which was above the 0.3% expansion that our panel of analysts had projected last month. The region’s largest economies Argentina, Brazil and Mexico were behind the improvement in Q1, though dynamics in most other countries softened as a result of mounting domestic challenges.
June 14, 2017
Regional economy grows faster than expected in Q1
Available information for this year suggests that the positive dynamics seen in late 2016 in the economy of the Central American and Caribbean region have carried over into the first quarter. Regional growth had accelerated in the last quarter of 2016 on the back of a tightening labor market in the U.S., an improvement in global trade flows and higher commodity prices. Entering this year, growth in the Dominican Republic largely benefited from surging inflows of remittances and tourism receipts, while a pick-up in economic activity in Panama was attributed to the knock-on effects of increased trade flows. Elsewhere in Central America and the Caribbean, GDP data is not yet available for the first quarter, but high-frequency data points to a stronger performance in the region overall. FocusEconomics expects GDP to have grown 3.1% in Q1, slightly above the 3.0% estimated last month. This confirms that the economy bottomed out last year, though it is still not out of the woods.
June 21, 2017
Activity strengthens in Q2
Available data suggests that the economy of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) gained further steam in Q2, after growth picked up at the start of the year. FocusEconomics analysts see regional GDP expanding 4.9% annually in the second quarter, a notch up from Q1’s 4.8%. Resilient domestic demand, which is benefiting from public spending initiatives, higher commodities prices and accommodative monetary policies, is supporting the regional economy.
June 21, 2017
Regional Q1 GDP dragged down by underperformance in India
India’s poor economic performance in the January-March period offset healthy dynamics in the majority of countries in East and South Asia (ESA), including China, Hong Kong and Korea. A comprehensive set of data for the region showed that aggregate GDP increased 6.2% year-on-year in Q1 2017 (Q4 2016: +6.2% yoy), which was a notch below the 6.3% expansion that our panel of analysts had projected last month.
June 28, 2017
Economy is off to the races with healthy Q2 growth on the horizon
The Eurozone economy has emerged as a bright spot in global growth this year, as incoming data outperforms expectations and earlier concerns over politics in the bloc appear to have been overblown. Complete GDP data reveal that the economy expanded 0.6% in Q1 over the previous quarter, a notch above the preliminary estimate and the best result in two years as growth broadens across economies. An improvement in the external sector fueled the uptick, while healthy private consumption confirmed that the domestic economy is sound as it is being supported by improving labor markets, easy financing conditions and looser fiscal policy.
June 7, 2017
Recovering investment and buoyant consumption power CEE economy in Q1
Complete data for the region confirms that growth quickened in the economy of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) at the start of 2017, although at a softer clip than the preliminary figure. GDP expanded 3.9% over the same period last year in Q1, notably above Q4 2016’s 2.8% expansion. Tighter labor markets and fiscal stimulus are supporting booming consumption in the region, while a recovery in investment is underway after a lull in EU development funds led to a profound drop last year. The first quarter’s reading marked the fastest growth since Q4 2015.
June 7, 2017
SEE economy tootles along in Q1
Preliminary data suggests that the economy of South-Eastern Europe plodded along at a moderate pace in the first quarter of the year, weighed down by Turkey’s uneven economic recovery and Greece’s never-ending debt saga. GDP grew at 2.8% annually in Q1, below Q4’s 3.0% expansion, marking a poor reading by historical standards. Romania spearheaded the region’s economic growth in the quarter thanks to a tighter labor market, tax cuts and public sector wage increases, which all buttressed private spending. The Bulgarian economy also contributed positively to the headline figure, growing at a steady clip as a result of robust household consumption and a pick-up in EU-funded investment. Meanwhile, the Cypriot economy recorded its strongest expansion since the height of the financial crisis.
June 7, 2017
Recovery firms in Q1 as growth broadens across economies
Preliminary data showed that the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) started off 2017 on a brighter note as GDP growth gained traction in Q1. The region’s GDP grew 1.0% over the same period of last year, slightly undershooting our panelists’ estimates last month (Q4 2016: +0.6% year-on-year). If confirmed, Q1’s result will have marked the fastest growth since Q3 2014 as the region recovers from two years of meagre activity.
June 7, 2017
Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Yemen cut diplomatic ties with Qatar
Robust economic activity in the non-oil sector led growth at the outset of the year in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). According to preliminary estimates, the region’s aggregate GDP growth was 2.6% year-on-year in Q1, below the 3.3% in Q4 and a notch above the 2.5% that our panel of analysts had projected last month.
June 21, 2017
Economy starts 2017 on stronger than expected note
Growth firmed up in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) at the start of 2017, overshooting analysts’ expectations. According to a preliminary estimate, regional GDP grew 2.1% annually in Q1, above Q4 2016’s 1.3% expansion. If confirmed, this will mark the fastest growth since Q4 2015 and suggests that green shoots are emerging in some battered economies that are beginning to recover from a dismal 2016. Overall, however, regional growth is still meager in a historical context as many economies are suffering from worsening economic imbalances.
Latest Economic
News
France: Consumer confidence jumps to ten-year high in June
June 28, 2017
The consumer confidence indicator produced by the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) jumped from a revised 103 points reading in May (previously reported: 102 points) to 108 in June.
France: Flash Composite PMI dips in June but still points to solid expansion in the private sector
June 26, 2017
The Markit Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) eased from a revised 56.9 (previously reported: 56.6) in May to 55.3 in June, contrasting market analysts’ expectations of a stronger 56.7.
Germany: German business confidence reaches record high in June
June 26, 2017
German business confidence rose to 115.1 points in June, up from 114.6 in May, marking an all-time high and overshooting market expectations of a decline to 114.5 points.
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