Emerging Markets Outlook 2021-2022
This brief examines the outlook for emerging market economies, and looks at monetary policy and public debt sustainability, with specific insight and forecasts for 12 key developing economies.
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Latest Reports
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July 27, 2021
Global economic activity is set to rebound in 2021
The global economy will rebound this year on expansive fiscal and monetary stances and the vaccine rollout. However, fastspreading Covid-19 variants will lead to stop-start restrictions in some countries, weighing on activity. Potential vaccine-resistant strains of the virus, supply constraints and U.S.-China tensions pose downside risks.
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July 13, 2021
Regional economy to recovery in 2021
The regional economy should recover some of last year’s losses in 2021, thanks to the gradual removal of restrictions and recovering global demand. However, the pace of recovery will be limited by the still-troubling pandemic situation. Additionally, social and political tensions, slow vaccine rollouts, sizable fiscal deficits and ailing labor markets cloud the outlook.
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July 27, 2021
GDP forecast to expand in 2021
The regional economy is set to return to growth this year as the impact of the pandemic fades, with vaccination progress expected to aid the easing of restrictive measures and rekindle aggregate demand. On the other hand, weakened labor markets and income levels will limit growth in household spending.
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July 20, 2021
GDP growth forecast for 2021 downgraded again
The outlook for regional GDP growth in 2021 received its seventh successive downgrade this month, amid spiking infection rates in key economies, a relatively slow vaccine rollout and delays in the much-needed recovery in tourism. Nevertheless, the region is set to recover from 2020’s sharp downturn as improving domestic and foreign demand drive an upturn in activity.
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July 20, 2021
Economic outlook for 2021 brightens
ASEAN GDP growth is set to pick up markedly this year as external demand rebounds. Fiscal and monetary stimulus should further support the bounce-back, while less volatile U.S. foreign policy under President Biden bodes well for trade. Covid-19-related uncertainty clouds the outlook, however, amid the increase in new variants of the virus.
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July 27, 2021
Euro area economy seen rebounding this year
This year, the economy will rebound thanks to the gradual easing of restrictions domestically and abroad, the disbursement of EU recovery funds, and unleashed pent-up demand amid expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. However, weaker public finances, the spread of Covid-19 variants and banks’ badloans pose downside risks.
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August 4, 2021
GDP forecast to expand robustly in 2021
This year, the CEE economy should return to growth as the lifting of restrictions releases pent-up demand. Supportive fiscal policies and incoming EU recovery funds should further support activity, while sturdier foreign demand is seen bolstering exports. The spread of new virus variants, potentially leading to a retightening of restrictions, clouds the outlook, however.
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August 4, 2021
Economic growth in South-Eastern Europe seen picking up this year
Activity in the regional economy is forecast to pick up this year as vaccination progress enables the easing of restrictive measures. However, despite recent upward revisions to growth forecasts, sluggish labor markets and pandemic-related uncertainty amid the emergence of new variants of Covid-19 continue to cloud the outlook.
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August 4, 2021
CIS Plus GDP to rebound in 2021
The CIS Plus economy is forecast to return to growth in 2021 thanks to easing pandemic-related restrictions. Sturdier domestic demand in heavyweight Russia, healthier remittance inflows for smaller economies, stronger foreign demand and higher commodity prices are seen as key drivers. Geopolitical tensions, new Covid-19 strains and a slow vaccine rollout cloud the outlook.
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August 4, 2021
GDP forecast to expand solidly in 2021
Regional GDP will expand robustly in 2021. Oil exporters are set to gain from higher average crude prices and the easing of OPEC+ cuts, while countries across the region should benefit from the vaccine rollout, looser restrictions and stronger demand abroad. However, geopolitical tensions, fragile fiscal positions and pandemic-related uncertainty pose downside risks.
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July 20, 2021
Regional economy to expand in 2021
Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP is seen increasing in 2021, supported by the gradual removal of restrictions. Pent-up foreign demand and recovering commodity prices are set to boost exports. That said, downside risks remain, including strained public finances and social unrest in several countries. The spread of the Delta strain and a slow vaccine drive cloud the outlook further.
Latest Economic
News
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Philippines: Inflation plunges to lowest level since December 2020 in July
August 5, 2021
Consumer prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.39% from the previous month in July, picking up from the 0.16% increase logged in June.
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Luxembourg: Inflation eases in July
August 5, 2021
Harmonized consumer prices dropped 0.40% in July over the previous month, swinging from the 0.30% rise logged in June.
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Cyprus: Inflation hits over decade high in July
August 5, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.11% July over the previous month, cooling from June’s 0.31% rise.
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