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Latest Reports
June 28, 2017
Political events take center stage; global growth remains strong
The global economy is ready to post another strong outturn in Q2 on the back of healthy economic dynamics in both emerging and advanced economies. Analysts polled for this month’s Consensus Forecast expect that the global economy will grow 3.0% annually in Q2, matching the result in Q1. The United States is expected to lead the pack following the disappointing result in Q1, while the Euro area and Japan are seen expanding at relatively decent rates. Advanced economies are benefiting from still accommodative monetary policy conditions and tighter labor markets, and the recent decline in energy prices is putting money into consumer’s pockets. Despite some signs of stabilization, global demand remains strong, propelling the external sector.
July 12, 2017
Economy starts year on a brighter-than-expected note as Argentina turns a corner
The Latin American economy returned to growth at the start of 2017, after nearly two years of declining activity. Comprehensive GDP data for the region shows that the economy expanded 0.8% annually in Q1, a notch above last month’s preliminary 0.7% increase (Q4 2016: -0.3% year-on-year). The upward revision was chiefly due to a stronger-than-expected quarter in Argentina, where the economy turned a corner and grew for the first time in almost a year. Resilient domestic demand propped up the economy, although growth was still meagre as the country undergoes a tough adjustment to radical economic reforms and is plagued with a high unemployment rate.
July 11, 2017
Regional economy accelerates further in Q1
The economy of the Central American and Caribbean region accelerated for a second consecutive quarter in Q1, according to a more comprehensive set of data. The region’s economy expanded 3.0% in annual terms, which was above the 2.8% increase observed in the previous quarter but marked a slight downward revision from last month’s 3.1% estimate for the region. The marginal downgrade was the result of disappointing growth in the Guatemalan economy, which failed to fire on all cylinders despite improved regional trade flows and record growth in remittances.
July 19, 2017
Steady but not yet stellar
The economy of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) continued to jog along in the second quarter of 2017, according to a preliminary estimate of regional GDP compiled by FocusEconomics. Growth was steady at Q1’s 4.8% annually in Q2, coming in a notch below last month’s projection. While the ASEAN economy has managed to maintain healthy growth in the past quarters despite a number of uncertainties, growth has hovered around 4.6% since 2014 as a number of economies fail to grow at full speed.
July 20, 2017
Strong growth momentum continues in Q2
Surprisingly-resilient economic dynamics in China continue to lead growth in East and South Asia (ESA). A preliminary set of data for the region showed that aggregate GDP increased 6.2% year-on-year in Q2 2017 (Q1: +6.2% yoy), which was a notch above the 6.1% expansion that our panel of analysts had projected last month.
June 28, 2017
Economy is off to the races with healthy Q2 growth on the horizon
The Eurozone economy has emerged as a bright spot in global growth this year, as incoming data outperforms expectations and earlier concerns over politics in the bloc appear to have been overblown. Complete GDP data reveal that the economy expanded 0.6% in Q1 over the previous quarter, a notch above the preliminary estimate and the best result in two years as growth broadens across economies. An improvement in the external sector fueled the uptick, while healthy private consumption confirmed that the domestic economy is sound as it is being supported by improving labor markets, easy financing conditions and looser fiscal policy.
July 5, 2017
Economy firing on all cylinders
The Central and Eastern European (CEE) economy has shifted into a higher gear in 2017. GDP expanded a vigorous 4.0% annually in Q1, the best result in over a year. Q1’s growth was revised up a notch from last month’s estimate, thanks largely to an upward revision in Hungary’s GDP reading and stronger-than-expected performance in Estonia and Slovenia, which grew at multi-year highs. FocusEconomics analysts expect another quarter of healthy growth in Q2 and see regional GDP growing 3.6%, driving growth for H1 to come in at a buoyant 3.8%.
July 20, 2017
SEE economy off to a strong start in 2017
A more comprehensive set of data shows that the economy of South-Eastern Europe (SEE) grew at a much faster pace than originally estimated in the first quarter of the year. The region’s economy expanded 4.1% in annual terms in Q1, a notable improvement from the previous quarter’s 3.0% increase and a much stronger figure than last month’s estimated 2.8% rise. The upward revision largely owed to front-loaded growth in the Turkish economy, which was brought about by the government’s counter-cyclical measures and a robust performance in the external sector. Nonetheless, the country’s fiscal and liquidity metrics have quickly deteriorated as a result of the government’s spending spree, which has analysts questioning the sustainability of the current debt-fueled growth model.
July 20, 2017
Momentum builds in H1 but outlook hinges on commodity prices
A gradual economic pick-up is underway in the economy of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). More complete GDP data confirms last month’s preliminary estimate that regional GDP expanded 1.0% annually in Q1, above Q4’s 0.6% increase. The slow mend of Russia’s economy drove the acceleration, as the regional giant expanded at the fastest pace since Q3 2014. Moreover, firmer activity in Russia had spillover affects across the region sparking higher remittances flows and investment.
July 5, 2017
Political turmoil adds to woes of an economy chugging along in low gear
The oil cap deal signed by key producers drove the Middle East and North Africa’s (MENA) economy to expand at the weakest pace in over one year in Q1. According to preliminary estimates, the region’s aggregate GDP growth was 2.7% year-on-year in Q1, sharply down from the revised 4.9% in Q4. Recently released and revised data for SH 2014, SH 2015 and the first three quarters of SH 2016 in Iran led to a sizeable revision of the region’s growth estimates for the Q3 2014–Q4 2016 period.
July 19, 2017
Q1 growth estimate revised down due to weak performance in Kenya
More complete data revealed that the economy of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) grew at a slower pace in Q1 than initially projected. According to an estimate compiled by FocusEconomics, regional GDP increased 2.0% annually in the first quarter of the year, a notch down from last month’s preliminary 2.1% estimate. Despite the downgrade, the figure still represents a strong acceleration from Q4 2016’s 1.4% expansion as an economic turnaround is taking place in the region after an abysmal 2016 characterized by slowing growth and worsening imbalances in many economies.
Latest Economic
News
Japan: Trade data remains strong in June
July 20, 2017
Nominal exports valued in yen increased 9.7% from the same month last year in June, following May’s 14.9% increase.
Denmark: Consumer confidence jumps up in July
July 20, 2017
The consumer confidence index released by Denmark Statistics came in at 10.5 points in July, which is up significantly from the previous month’s 7.1 points and the highest reading since May 2015. The improvement was sufficiently broad-based as sentiment regarding nearly all sub-indices improved compared to June.
Japan: BoJ keeps policy steady, trims inflation forecasts
July 20, 2017
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its monetary policy stance at its 19–20 July meeting, voting to continue with its program of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control as long as is necessary to achieve and maintain its 2.0% inflation target.
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