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December 23, 2022
Global growth will slow in 2023 on higher interest rates and still-elevated inflation. However, government cost-of-living support and China’s shift to living with Covid-19 will cushion the slowdown. Risks include faster-than-expected monetary tightening, a broadening of the war in Ukraine, a European gas crunch, U.S.-China tensions and a snapback of restrictions in China.
January 18, 2023
The regional economy will lose steam in 2023 on tight financial conditions and lower average prices for key commodity exports. However, recovering tourism arrivals, China’s Covid-19 reopening and a likely soft landing of the U.S. economy will prop up the external sector. Outbreaks of sociopolitical unrest and tighter-than-expected monetary policy are key risks to the outlook.
January 18, 2023
Regional growth will nearly halve this year from 2022’s projected level. Above-target inflation, high borrowing costs dampening credit and still-elevated unemployment will dampen private spending. The projected global slowdown bodes ill for remittances, tourism and regional export revenue. Domestic political instability is a risk.
January 26, 2023
The regional economy should grow at a slower pace this year. A slowdown in domestic demand amid still-high inflation, tighter financing conditions and less expansionary fiscal stances caused the deceleration. A worsening global economic environment will have also contributed. That said, rising tourist numbers will support activity, and China’s reopening poses a key upside risk.
January 26, 2023
The regional economy will gain steam this year. The lifting of Covid-19 restrictions in China will boost Chinese demand and fuel stronger exports and tourist arrivals in other East Asian economies. That said, tighter monetary policy in most countries and slowdowns in the U.S. and Europe will cap momentum. China-Taiwan tensions and the speed of China’s recovery are risks.
December 23, 2022
See our latest analysis in the Resources section
January 11, 2023
Economic Growth
January 10, 2023
Regional growth will cool significantly this year. A weaker Euro Area economy, elevated inflation, geopolitical volatility and the war in Ukraine will restrain household spending, industrial production and exports. On top of this, tighter financing conditions should further subdue activity in most countries. Turkey should expand more robustly than its smaller regional peers.
January 10, 2023
The regional economy will shrink again this year as war-related costs and international sanctions continue to hurt the Russian and Belarussian economies. While the rest of the region should experience growth, this will be capped by still-elevated inflation and the downturn in important trading partner Russia. Additional spillover from the war in Ukraine is the key risk.
January 10, 2023
GDP growth in the Middle East & North Africa will soften to near the 10-year pre-pandemic average this year. Rate hikes, stagnating oil production and weakening external demand will all weigh on activity. Key factors to watch include changes to OPEC+ quotas, U.S. Fed hikes, extreme weather, geopolitical tensions and the Russia-Ukraine grain deal—which was recently extended to mid-March 2023.
January 26, 2023
This year, regional GDP growth should be largely stable. Underperformance in heavyweights South Africa and Nigeria will drag on healthy growth elsewhere. Meanwhile, higher borrowing costs and elevated debt levels will increase servicing costs, boding ill for public finances and threatening debt sustainability. Extreme weather events are also a risk.
January 27, 2023
According to a preliminary estimate, GDP rose 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q4 2022, matching the increase recorded in Q3.
January 26, 2023
Merchandise exports declined 9.7% annually in December, contrasting November’s 13.2% upturn.
January 26, 2023
The business confidence index produced by National Australia Bank (NAB) rose to minus 0.8 in December from minus 4.2 in November.
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