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Latest Reports
May 31, 2017
Looming uncertainties threaten global economic recovery
Global economic activity firmed up at the outset of the year according to comprehensive data for Q1. Global GDP rose 2.9% annually (Q4 2016: +2.8% year-on-year), which was a notch above the 2.8% expansion that our panel of analysts had projected last month. On top of the acceleration in China reported last month, growth in the United States was revised upward on stronger private consumption and investment. The economic story remained largely intact in the Euro area, with GDP benefiting from a declining unemployment rate and a robust external sector. In Japan, a competitive yen and healthy investment buttressed economic growth. On the downside, economic dynamics in the United Kingdom started to feel the pinch of high inflation and subdued wage growth.
June 14, 2017
Latin American economy rebounds in Q1 after long and painful contraction
The Latin American economy expanded for the first time in nearly two years in Q1, according to the latest regional data. Our Consensus estimate suggests that the aggregate GDP for the region increased 0.7% year-on-year in Q1 2017 (Q4 2016: -0.4% yoy), which was above the 0.3% expansion that our panel of analysts had projected last month. The region’s largest economies Argentina, Brazil and Mexico were behind the improvement in Q1, though dynamics in most other countries softened as a result of mounting domestic challenges.
June 14, 2017
Regional economy grows faster than expected in Q1
Available information for this year suggests that the positive dynamics seen in late 2016 in the economy of the Central American and Caribbean region have carried over into the first quarter. Regional growth had accelerated in the last quarter of 2016 on the back of a tightening labor market in the U.S., an improvement in global trade flows and higher commodity prices. Entering this year, growth in the Dominican Republic largely benefited from surging inflows of remittances and tourism receipts, while a pick-up in economic activity in Panama was attributed to the knock-on effects of increased trade flows. Elsewhere in Central America and the Caribbean, GDP data is not yet available for the first quarter, but high-frequency data points to a stronger performance in the region overall. FocusEconomics expects GDP to have grown 3.1% in Q1, slightly above the 3.0% estimated last month. This confirms that the economy bottomed out last year, though it is still not out of the woods.
June 21, 2017
Activity strengthens in Q2
Available data suggests that the economy of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) gained further steam in Q2, after growth picked up at the start of the year. FocusEconomics analysts see regional GDP expanding 4.9% annually in the second quarter, a notch up from Q1’s 4.8%. Resilient domestic demand, which is benefiting from public spending initiatives, higher commodities prices and accommodative monetary policies, is supporting the regional economy.
June 21, 2017
Regional Q1 GDP dragged down by underperformance in India
India’s poor economic performance in the January-March period offset healthy dynamics in the majority of countries in East and South Asia (ESA), including China, Hong Kong and Korea. A comprehensive set of data for the region showed that aggregate GDP increased 6.2% year-on-year in Q1 2017 (Q4 2016: +6.2% yoy), which was a notch below the 6.3% expansion that our panel of analysts had projected last month.
May 31, 2017
Eurozone clears political hurdles
Recently released data show that the Eurozone economy defied expectations at the start of 2017 and expanded a robust 0.5% over the previous quarter in Q1. The common-currency bloc has managed to shake off multiple preliminary hurdles, most notably a Brexit-induced slowdown that had been previously forecast for the region. The preliminary figure confirms that so far, the recovery has legs, with growth matching Q4’s figure and last month’s FocusEconomics panelists’ expectations.
June 7, 2017
Recovering investment and buoyant consumption power CEE economy in Q1
Complete data for the region confirms that growth quickened in the economy of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) at the start of 2017, although at a softer clip than the preliminary figure. GDP expanded 3.9% over the same period last year in Q1, notably above Q4 2016’s 2.8% expansion. Tighter labor markets and fiscal stimulus are supporting booming consumption in the region, while a recovery in investment is underway after a lull in EU development funds led to a profound drop last year. The first quarter’s reading marked the fastest growth since Q4 2015.
June 7, 2017
SEE economy tootles along in Q1
Preliminary data suggests that the economy of South-Eastern Europe plodded along at a moderate pace in the first quarter of the year, weighed down by Turkey’s uneven economic recovery and Greece’s never-ending debt saga. GDP grew at 2.8% annually in Q1, below Q4’s 3.0% expansion, marking a poor reading by historical standards. Romania spearheaded the region’s economic growth in the quarter thanks to a tighter labor market, tax cuts and public sector wage increases, which all buttressed private spending. The Bulgarian economy also contributed positively to the headline figure, growing at a steady clip as a result of robust household consumption and a pick-up in EU-funded investment. Meanwhile, the Cypriot economy recorded its strongest expansion since the height of the financial crisis.
June 7, 2017
Recovery firms in Q1 as growth broadens across economies
Preliminary data showed that the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) started off 2017 on a brighter note as GDP growth gained traction in Q1. The region’s GDP grew 1.0% over the same period of last year, slightly undershooting our panelists’ estimates last month (Q4 2016: +0.6% year-on-year). If confirmed, Q1’s result will have marked the fastest growth since Q3 2014 as the region recovers from two years of meagre activity.
June 7, 2017
Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Yemen cut diplomatic ties with Qatar
Robust economic activity in the non-oil sector led growth at the outset of the year in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). According to preliminary estimates, the region’s aggregate GDP growth was 2.6% year-on-year in Q1, below the 3.3% in Q4 and a notch above the 2.5% that our panel of analysts had projected last month.
June 21, 2017
Economy starts 2017 on stronger than expected note
Growth firmed up in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) at the start of 2017, overshooting analysts’ expectations. According to a preliminary estimate, regional GDP grew 2.1% annually in Q1, above Q4 2016’s 1.3% expansion. If confirmed, this will mark the fastest growth since Q4 2015 and suggests that green shoots are emerging in some battered economies that are beginning to recover from a dismal 2016. Overall, however, regional growth is still meager in a historical context as many economies are suffering from worsening economic imbalances.
Latest Economic
News
Eurozone: Composite PMI eases in June, but points to best quarter in over six years in Q2
June 23, 2017
Leading data suggest that the Euro area’s economic recovery softened somewhat in June, but remained on track for the best quarter in over six years in Q2.
Greece: Economy grew after all in Q1, revised data shows
June 23, 2017
A complete dataset released on 2 June by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT) revealed that the economy performed much better than previously expected at the start of 2017.
United Kingdom: Hung parliament fuels hopes of softer Brexit as negotiations begin in earnest
June 23, 2017
The result of the 8 June general election, which saw Theresa May’s Conservative Party lose its absolute parliamentary majority and be forced to lean on the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in order to govern, has likely increased the probability of a slightly softer exit from the European Union.
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