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Latest Reports

  • December 21, 2016

    Global economy suffers another lackluster year in 2016

    Global economic growth remained soft in 2016 for numerous reasons which vary by region. Generally, the culprits include structural adjustments in many countries, efforts to reduce overcapacity, recurring natural disasters, geopolitical events—such as Brexit, a coup d’état in Turkey and the ongoing civil war in Syria, among others—and heightened uncertainty related to the U.S. presidential election, as well as potential policy changes in the U.S. and a number of other major economies. Comprehensive data showed that the global economy grew 2.6% year-on-year in Q3 (at current exchange rates) and remains on track to have grown 2.5% overall in 2016, in line with FocusEconomics’ Consensus Forecast.

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  • January 18, 2017

    Latin Americans became poorer in 2016, triggering political shift

    In most of Latin America, persistently weak economic conditions have triggered a political shift from the left to the right of the political spectrum. Voters moved away from populism as a perceived solution to economic and social issues as progress on poverty reduction had stalled and income inequality remained higher than in any other region in the world. According to estimates produced by FocusEconomics, which are based on our panelists’ forecasts, Latin Americans became poorer in 2016. Considering a population growth rate of 1.1% in the region last year, estimates show that GDP per capita fell for a second consecutive year in 2016 and decreased to levels seen in 2009. The drop reflected the protracted recession in the region and, to some extent, the slump in global commodity prices that substantially hurt exporting countries of raw materials—such as Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela—while benefitting net commodity importers, particularly importers of hydrocarbons.

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  • January 18, 2017

    Key economies decelerate in Q3 2016

    Following a deceleration in the first half of 2016, preliminary estimates show that growth remained broadly stable in the third quarter. GDP expanded 3.0% on an annual basis, which was up from the second quarter’s 2.7% rise. The region likely performed better than Latin America last year, as it benefited from the recovery of the U.S. economy. This was reflected in higher remittance inflows and exports for the region. That said, there are escalating concerns that the stricter immigration policies of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will negatively affect the region, in particular countries that are highly dependent on the remittance flows from the U.S.

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  • December 14, 2016

    Dynamics weaken slightly in Q3

    More complete data show that economic activity slowed less than previously estimated in the third quarter in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The economy expanded 4.6% annually, up one notch from the 4.5% increase estimated last month. Nevertheless, the result marks a slight slowdown from Q2 as weak trade dynamics and lackluster investment limited growth in the region.

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  • December 14, 2016

    Activity flounders in Q3 as India underperforms

    Although preliminary data suggested that economic growth had gathered momentum in the third quarter, a more complete set of data revealed that growth had actually stalled again in the East and South Asia (ESA) economy. The region expanded 6.1% annually in Q3, a rate at which it has remained unchanged for the past four quarters, following over a year of slowing economic activity.

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  • December 21, 2016

    Economic recovery continues in eventful 2016 but more political hurdles loom 

    Despite a year defined by a migrant crisis, populist movements, Brexit and the election of Donald Trump, the Eurozone’s tepid economic recovery continued in 2016. The third estimate for Q3 GDP confirmed that the economy grew a steady 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, which followed Q2’s 0.3% expansion and Q1’s 0.5% increase. The Eurozone’s growth story has remained consistent throughout the year, driven by a strengthening domestic economy while the external sector has been lackluster. Improvements in the labor market, low inflation and ultra-easy monetary policies have boosted growth at home, but investment has yet to fully take off. 

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  • January 11, 2017

    Growth on track to pick up after Q3’s slowdown

    Complete data confirmed a sharp slowdown in the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the third quarter of last year. GDP expanded 2.6% over the same period of 2015, the worst result seen since Q3 2013 (Q2 2016: +3.3% year-on-year). A slump in fixed investment and a weak external sector drove the deceleration, despite expansionary fiscal policies in key economies.

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  • January 11, 2017

    SEE economy plummets in Q3 due to Turkey’s GDP contraction 

    Comprehensive data showed that growth in the South-Eastern Europe (SEE) region plummeted in the third quarter of 2016. GDP expanded only 0.1% over the same quarter of the previous year, which was a much slower expansion compared to the 3.8% increase seen in the second quarter and marked the lowest reading in nearly four years. The strong deceleration was due to a slowdown in 6 of the 12 countries surveyed, including a contraction in Turkey—the biggest economy in SEE. The silver lining of the region in the third quarter was Greece, where the economy swung from a 0.4% contraction in Q2 to a 1.6% increase in Q3.

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  • January 11, 2017

    2015–2016 recession revives ghosts of the past

    Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the successor states that formed the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) have suffered from various cyclical crises. Although the latest recession that began in 2015 has not yet finished, the situation is improving. Comprehensive data suggest that the aggregate GDP for the CIS region decreased 0.3% in the third quarter from the same period of the previous year (previously reported: -0.2% year-on-year), which followed a 0.4% contraction in Q2. Q3’s result marked the softest decrease since the regional economy began to contract in Q1 2015.

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  • January 11, 2017

    MENA growth accelerates in 2016 despite GCC’s weak performance

    Economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) showed surprising resilience in 2016 despite mounting political and economic headwinds. According to our estimates, the region’s aggregate GDP expanded 2.7% in 2016, up from 2015’s 2.6% growth. Far from being a broad-based improvement, 2016’s figure was the result of diverging economic trends within MENA. The region greatly benefited from Iran’s reintegration into the global economy and its consequent surge in oil shipments. The Persian country is projected to expand at the fastest pace in six years in the Iranian fiscal year 2016, which ends in March 2017. Another positive note for 2016 was Iraq’s economic rebound following 2015’s dismal performance, when the Islamic State (ISIL) occupied large swaths of land in the country.

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  • December 14, 2016

    SSA economic performance remains sluggish in Q3

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