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Latest Reports

  • November 23, 2016

    Trump government means short-term boost to growth but more volatility

    Donald Trump was elected the 45th U.S. President on 8 November and his platform based on “America first” is expected to have profound global ramifications. Many of President-elect Trump’s policy proposals lack detail and clarity will only emerge in the coming weeks as he assembles his Cabinet and establishes his relationship with Congressional Republicans. The Consensus among economists is that Trump’s policy proposals—higher tariffs on trade, curbing illegal immigration, increased federal stimulus and tax cuts for corporations and wealthy U.S. citizens—are likely to provide a short-term boost to U.S. economic growth, yet they will be detrimental for the global economy in the medium to long term.

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  • December 7, 2016

    What does Trump mean for Latin America?

    The result of the U.S. presidential elections has called into question the future of U.S.-Latin America relations. Although President-elect Donald Trump did not articulate a detailed foreign policy approach towards Latin America during his campaign, trade and immigration—two of the key topics of the Trump campaign—are likely to dominate the agenda across the continent. Mexico is expected to be the hardest hit, and this goes beyond Trump’s relentless promise that his administration would build a wall between the two countries to stem the flow of illegal immigration. South American countries will be off the administration’s radar, although there is a high risk that protectionist policies could damage some of the countries’ agricultural exports to the U.S.

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  • December 7, 2016

    Economy set for tepid growth again in H2

    The economy of Central American and the Caribbean decelerated in the first half of the year and data from key countries show that the region is set to expand at another tepid rate in the second half. The Dominican Republic—the biggest economy in the region—grew 5.8% year-on-year in Q3 supported by an improvement in the construction and mining sectors. The figure marked a deceleration over the previous quarter’s growth, but it represents a strong expansion compared to other countries in the region. In the same quarter, Panama’s economy was undermined by a challenging external environment. While official GDP data are not available yet, the average economic activity reading for the three months up to September suggests a deceleration.  

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  • November 16, 2016

    Growth stumbles in Q3, uncertainty hits ASEAN currencies

    Economic dynamics in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) softened in the third quarter. Data accounting for over 60% of the region’s nominal GDP show that the economy expanded 4.5% annually in Q3, a slowdown from Q2’s 4.7% increase. If confirmed, the result will mark the slowest growth rate seen since Q3 2015. The region’s economy suffered from weak external demand and lackluster investment, while public spending failed to pick up the slack.

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  • November 16, 2016

    Healthy domestic dynamics under threat from external headwinds

    Economic performance in East and South Asia (ESA) accelerated for the first time in over two years in Q3. According to estimates from FocusEconomics analysts, the region expanded 6.2% annually in Q3, which was above the 6.1% rise recorded in the previous three quarters and overshot the 6.0% growth expected last month. Resilient private consumption, fiscal support and a pick-up in investment led the Chinese economy to keep up its growth momentum, thereby supporting most economies in the region. Hong Kong’s economy defied both external headwinds and domestic challenges and accelerated for the first time in a year in the July-September period. Moreover, in Taiwan, strong domestic demand and renewed demand from the external sector led the economy to expand at the fastest pace in a year-and-a-half in Q3. On the downside, however, difficulties in Korea’s all-important companies Hyundai and Samsung drove the country’s economy to slow in the three months up to September.

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  • November 23, 2016

    GDP growth unfazed by political developments in Q3 

    The Eurozone economy shrugged off any early Brexit contagion in Q3 as GDP growth remained steady. The common currency bloc grew 0.3% in Q3 over the previous period, unchanged from Q2’s result, according to a preliminary estimate by Eurostat. While a breakdown by components is not yet available, the economy’s growth story likely remained the same as previously, with GDP growth supported by solid domestic demand in the face of a subdued external sector. The unemployment rate continued on a downward trend in Q3 and ultra-loose monetary conditions in a context of muted price pressures likely boosted consumption.

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  • November 30, 2016

    Growth slows sharply to three-year low in Q3

    The economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) lost steam in the third quarter, according to preliminary data available across the region. GDP expanded 2.6% over the same period last year, the worst result seen since Q3 2013 (Q2: +3.3% year-on-year). Despite fiscal easing measures in several economies, low price pressures and easy monetary policy, growth was likely hit by shrinking investment and subdued external demand.

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  • November 30, 2016

    SEE economy remains weak in Q3

    Provisional GDP estimates show that the economies of South-Eastern Europe (SEE) remained weak in the third quarter, following the regional slowdown recorded in the second quarter. Taking a closer look at individual countries where Q3 GDP data is available, a sharp deceleration from the previous quarter was recorded in Romania which expanded 4.4% in the three months to September, but this still marked a robust expansion. The slowdown is a likely product of lower household consumption, as the effects of the wage hikes and VAT cuts introduced earlier this year start to wane. A slowdown was also recorded in Bulgaria while growth in Cyprus stalled in Q3. The silver lining of the region in the third quarter was Greece, where growth swung from a 0.4% contraction in the second quarter to a 1.2% expansion in the third quarter. The improvement was likely due to both domestic and external factors.

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  • November 30, 2016

    Preliminary Q3 data show softest contraction since 2015

    For the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), 2016 has been a challenging year. Low commodity prices, a protracted recession in regional giant Russia—which had to painfully adjust to low oil prices and international sanctions—and mediocre global economic activity have all weighed heavily on the region’s growth performance. Having tanked in 2015, the economic contraction in the region stabilized in the first half of 2016 and more recent data suggest that the Commonwealth’s economy is showing signs of emerging from the recession. According to a FocusEconomics preliminary estimate for aggregate GDP, the economy of the CIS region decreased just 0.2% in the third quarter from the same period last year (Q2: -0.4% year-on-year). If confirmed, this would represent the softest decrease since the regional economy began to contract in Q1 2015.

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  • November 30, 2016

    Oil deal saga continues to dominate the headlines

    Economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) strengthened in Q3 on the back of accommodative monetary policies in most countries in the region, more stable financial and exchange rate markets, a slight increase in oil prices and stronger crude production. According to our estimates, the region’s aggregate GDP expanded 2.5% year-on-year in Q3, up from Q2’s 2.1% growth. Nevertheless, the region appears to have entered Q4 on a weaker footing as an uncertain global outlook, doubts about the deal among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut crude production and harsh fiscal adjustment processes are exerting downward pressure on growth. In this context, the PMI for the non-hydrocarbon sector in the majority of MENA countries deteriorated in October.

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  • November 16, 2016

    SSA’s economy stays stuck in low gear

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