Central Bank Rate in Kenya
The Central Bank Rate ended 2022 at 8.75%, up from the 7.00% end-2021 value and in line with the reading of 8.50% a decade earlier. For reference, the average Central Bank Rate in Sub-Saharan Africa was 11.80% at end-2022. For more interest rate information, visit our dedicated page.
Kenya Interest Rate Chart
Kenya Interest Rate Data
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Central Bank Rate (%, eop) | 9.00 | 8.50 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 8.75 |
Central Bank surprises markets with a hike in February
At its first meeting of 2024 on 6 February, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) increased its policy rate by 50 basis points to 13.00%. As a result, the policy rate reached its highest level in over a decade. The move, which came on the heels of December’s 200 basis point hike, surprised most market analysts on the upside.
The decision to hike was driven by inflation having hovered around the upper bound of the 2.5–7.5% target range since July 2023; price pressures increased to 6.9% in January. In particular, the CBK noted that upside inflationary risks remain, especially the depreciation of the shilling, which has been losing ground against the USD since May 2021. Therefore, the Bank aimed to anchor inflation expectations and assure the downward path of inflation towards the mid-point of the target range; the hike should mitigate price pressures by depressing domestic demand and supporting the shilling.
The CBK’s communiqué was void of explicit forward guidance. That said, the Bank underlined that it “stands ready to take further action as necessary in line with its mandate”. Given the surprise hike, our panel is in the process of revising its forecasts for the policy rate ahead. The next monetary policy meeting will be held in April, with the Bank yet to specify an exact date.
Analysts at the EIU commented on their forecast for the policy rate: “We viewed February's interest-rate rise as an outside possibility, which materialised, but we now believe that the CBK's monetary tightening cycle is over, especially given the prospect of US interest-rate cuts later in 2024. Balancing the positive implications for inflation and the exchange rate, the CBK's hawkish stance will dampen credit uptake, consumption and investment, to the detriment of growth.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Kenyan interest rate projections for the next ten years from a panel of 3 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable interest rate forecast available for Kenyan interest rate.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Kenyan interest rate projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Kenyan interest rate forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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