Netherlands Industrial Production (ann. var. %)

After deteriorating sequentially in Q3 last year, activity bounced back in Q4 due to accelerations in private consumption, public spending and exports, as well as a rebound in fixed investment. In Q1 this year, our panelists project a contraction in activity. In January, industry contracted annually at the steepest pace since April 2020, at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. That said, inflation decelerated and wage growth picked up in January–February, and consumer confidence improved over the quarter, boding well for private spending. In politics, the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB) won 137 seats in March’s provincial elections—more than double that of the second-place party, the VVD. Its victory will complicate Dutch politics ahead, especially environmental policy—opposition to the planned curbs on nitrogen emissions is the signature policy of the BBB.