Economic Growth in Slovenia
Slovenia's economy recorded an average growth rate of 2.9% in the decade to 2024, compared to the 0.8% average for Euro Area. In 2024, real GDP growth was 1.6%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Slovenia GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Slovenia from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Slovenia GDP Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.1 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
GDP (USD bn) | 53.3 | 61.5 | 59.8 | 69.1 | 72.4 |
GDP (EUR bn) | 46.7 | 52.0 | 56.9 | 64.0 | 67.0 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.9 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 4.7 |
Economy records sharpest contraction since Covid-19 pandemic in Q1
GDP shrinks in Q1: GDP unexpectedly contracted 0.7% year on year in the first quarter (Q4 2024: +1.5% yoy), marking the worst result since the pandemic-induced dip in Q4 2020 and ranking as the worst performance in the Euro area. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity dropped 0.8% in Q1, contrasting the previous period's 0.3% growth and also marking the largest downturn since Q4 2020.
Swathes of the economy shrink: The year-on-year decline was broad-based. Domestically, household consumption—which accounts for more than 50% of GDP—grew at a weaker pace of 0.4% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +1.2% yoy), hampered by higher inflation compared to the prior quarter. Moreover, public spending decelerated to 2.6% (Q4 2024: +5.7% yoy), the worst result in more than a year. Meanwhile, fixed investment dropped at a marginally slower pace of 5.1% in Q1 (Q4 2024: -5.2% yoy), logging the fourth successive quarter of contraction on the back of a subdued construction sector. On the external front, goods and services exports growth almost screeched to a halt, dropping to 0.1% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +3.9% yoy) and marking the worst reading in a year. Meanwhile, imports of goods and services growth moderated to 1.9% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +2.3% yoy).
GDP to gain momentum in 2025: Our panelists expect the economy to improve from Q1’s slump in Q2. That said, U.S. car tariffs are likely posing headwinds to Slovenia’s economy in the quarter. In 2025 as a whole, our Consensus is for the economy to gain momentum from 2024. ECB rate cuts, EU funds and military spending should ignite a rebound in fixed investment and fuel private consumption. Still, the economy’s engine will not be firing on all cylinders—government spending momentum is expected to fade, leaving GDP growth relatively subdued. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in EU demand looms as a key downside risk.
Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, Alen Kovac, analyst at Erste Bank, stated: “Looking further into this year, we continue to see domestic demand remaining [a] key growth engine, with private consumption maintaining steady growth momentum, coupled with the anticipated improvement of the investment profile. Opposed to that, challenges regarding the external demand developments should continue to weigh on the export outlook, thus keeping the net exports contribution toned down in period ahead. Disappointing 1Q25 output [suggests] downward revision of our current FY25 growth forecast.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Slovenian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 25 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Slovenian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Slovenian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Slovenian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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