CIS Countries Economic Outlook
Regional GDP growth should cool this year after rebounding in 2023. The fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war—international sanctions, diminished trade, high interest rates, labor shortages, drained investment flows and high inflation—will hurt outturns in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. Further deterioration in the geopolitical backdrop is the main downside risk.
CIS Countries Inflation
Regional inflation ticked up to 7.2% in February (January: 7.1%), marking the first increase since November. This was due to a jump in price pressures in Russia, which more than offset cooling price pressures across the rest of the region. The outlook remains volatile, with geopolitics, monetary policies, energy prices and currency movements all key factors to watch.
This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for CIS Countries from 2010 to 2022.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per capita (USD) | 7,715 | 6,931 | 8,480 | 10,058 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 2.5 | -2.7 | 5.5 | -1.8 | - |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 4.6 | -4.8 | 9.2 | - | - |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 3.0 | -5.2 | 7.9 | - | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.9 | -2.0 | 5.2 | - | - |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 448 | 410 | 512 | 500 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 663 | 721 | 759 | 714 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 40.2 | 44.7 | 38.0 | 29.3 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.9 | 6.0 | 5.1 | - | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 1.2 | -3.9 | -0.4 | -2.6 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 18.7 | 25.4 | 22.0 | 24.0 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 5.0 | 4.0 | 7.5 | 14.1 | 7.3 |
| CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) | 7.38 | 5.27 | 8.80 | 9.59 | 15.31 |
| Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) | 334 | 405 | 396 | 410 | 515 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.2 | 1.2 | 4.8 | 9.3 | - |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 604 | 488 | 712 | 835 | - |