Merchandise exports increase at a quicker pace in April

Latest reading: Merchandise exports jumped 29.9% annually in April, on the heels of March’s 18.6% upturn and close to double market expectations. Firms front-loading exports ahead of U.S. tariffs likely drove the higher-than-expected print, with IT and electronics remaining top performing sectors. Meanwhile, merchandise imports shot up 33.0% in annual terms in April (March: +28.8% yoy). As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 7.2 billion surplus in April (March 2025: USD 6.9 billion surplus; April 2024: USD 6.3 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend improved, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 86.1 billion surplus in April, compared to the USD 85.2 billion surplus in March.

Panelist insight: On the data and outlook, Nomura analysts said: “Over the past few months, stronger exports had been partly driven by the tariff threat, as we have observed that companies are rushing into tech product purchases ahead of the termination of the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs and potential Section 232 tariffs on chips/electronics. However, structural demand for AI servers remains strong, supporting exports of AI-related products. Accordingly, we believe these combined effects have been driving stronger export growth despite the tariff shock. The issue is how long front-loading effects will continue to support exports once companies complete their inventory restocking […]. Assuming companies likely maintain 2-3 months of inventory, we expect export growth to be subject to the risk of a sharp slowdown in H2 after a few months of strong growth.”

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