Inflation falls in May

Latest reading: Inflation eased to 23.0% in May from April’s 23.7%. May marked the fifth month after the statistical office introduced methodological changes, lowering the weight of food—which had been a key inflation driver in previous months. The result was driven by moderating price pressures for food, housing and transportation. Annual average inflation fell to 27.6% in May (April: 28.5%). Meanwhile, core inflation fell to 23.3% in May from the previous month's 24.5%. Finally, consumer prices rose 1.53% in May over the previous month, moderating from April's 1.86% increase. May's result marked the weakest reading since December 2024.

Outlook: After January’s change in inflation methodology, our panel has cut its 2025 inflation forecasts by 3.3 percentage points. Panelists now expect a higher base of comparison and the lower weight of food in the basket to push inflation below 2024’s level by more than previously anticipated.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Nigerian inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 18 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Nigerian inflation.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Nigerian inflation projections.

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