Nigeria: Nigerian oil production holds steady in May
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 103.84 per barrel in May, up 1.0% from April. On 29 May, the commodity traded at USD 92.03 per barrel, down 19.4% from 30 April.
Turning to production, Nigerian oil output held steady at April’s 1.52 million barrels per day (mbpd) in May, overshooting the country’s OPEC+ quota of 1.50 mbpd.
Outlook: We expect Nigerian oil production to remain on an upward trend, exceeding its 1.50 mbpd OPEC+ quota again in 2026 and rising gradually thereafter. Near-term growth should be supported by improved security in the Niger Delta, infrastructure and governance reforms, full operations at the Dangote refinery—Africa’s largest—and new upstream investment following the OPL 245 resolution and recent Chevron-NNPC discoveries. Still, oil theft, pipeline sabotage, underinvestment and renewed instability in the Niger Delta remain key downside risks. Broader geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could also affect global supply dynamics and market conditions.
Panelist insight: Regarding risks to the outlook, analysts at EIU commented:
“Despite some recent improvements in security, militant activity still poses a threat to oil output in the Niger Delta, the country’s main oil-producing region. One of the principal demands of the insurgents operating in this area is that a higher share of hydrocarbons revenue should be set aside for local development. Oil theft and pipeline sabotage have also been encouraged by weak governance in the region.”