Nigeria: Nigerian oil production edges up in April
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 102.81 per barrel in April, up 3.4% from March. On 30 April, the commodity traded at USD 114.15 per barrel, down 3.5% from 31 March.
Turning to production, Nigerian oil output ticked up to 1.49 million barrels per day (mbpd) in April from March’s 1.45 mbpd; despite the uptick, output fell just short of Nigeria’s OPEC+ quota of 1.50 mbpd for the sixth consecutive month.
Outlook: In 2026, our Consensus is for Nigerian oil output to hit a six-year high, and overshoot Nigeria’s 1.50 mbpd quota for a second straight year.
Beyond 2026, our Consensus is for output to continue rising gradually through our forecast horizon through 2030. Still, instability in the oil-producing Niger Delta region poses a downside risk, while the conflict in the Middle East is key to monitor.