Nigeria: Nigerian oil production rises in June
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 84.49 per barrel in June, down 18.6% from May. On 30 June, the commodity traded at USD 72.94 per barrel, down 20.7% from 29 May.
Turning to production, Nigerian oil output rose to 1.56 million barrels per day (mbpd) in June, edging up from May’s 1.55, overshooting the country’s OPEC+ quota of 1.50 mbpd for a third straight month.
Outlook: Nigerian oil production should stay on an upward path, again exceeding its 1.50 mbpd OPEC+ quota in 2026 and rising further after that through our forecast horizon until 2030, driven by improved Niger Delta security, infrastructure and governance reforms, full operations at the Dangote refinery and new upstream investment following the OPL 245 settlement and new Chevron-NNPC discoveries. That said, oil theft, pipeline sabotage, underinvestment and renewed Niger Delta instability remain key downside risks.