Netherlands Inflation

Inflation slows in June from the prior month

Latest reading: Harmonized consumer prices rose 2.5% in annual terms in June, following a 3.4% increase in the previous month. Relative to the previous month's data, there were milder price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages (-0.5% on a year-on-year basis vs +0.1% in May), transportation (+7.1% vs +10.3% in May), recreation (+2.4% vs +2.8% in May) and restaurants and hotels (+4.5% vs +8.1% in May). In contrast, price pressures were higher for housing and utilities in June (+2.8% vs +2.5% in May). Meanwhile, consumer prices rose 2.9% on a year-on-year basis in June, following a 3.5% increase in the prior month. Finally, harmonized consumer prices were down 0.91% in June on a month-on-month basis, following a 0.03% decline in the prior month.

Panelist insight: Aggie van Huisseling and Jan-Paul van de Kerke from ABN AMRO commented on the outlook: “More generally, we expect Dutch HICP inflation to average 3.0% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, with elevated energy prices gradually filtering through to other inflation categories such as industrial goods and food. The decline in energy prices on the back of the agreement between the US and Iran, and the accompanying opening of the Strait of Hormuz, forms a downward risk for the inflation forecasts. Part of the earlier energy price shock, however, is still in the pipeline and has a lagged effect on consumer prices.”

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