Latvia Industrial Production (ann. var. %)

Industrial Production in Latvia

GDP growth nearly halved in Q1 from Q4. Weaker year-on-year activity in the primary and secondary sectors chiefly drove the moderation. Additionally, the external sector likely dampened overall growth further: Merchandise exports growth in the quarter was the slowest since Q2 2020. Turning to the current quarter, our panelists see the economy swinging into contraction. Economic sentiment deteriorated in April, which, coupled with the ECB’s rate hike in May, bodes ill for private spending and investment. In addition, still-elevated producer price inflation should continue to strain industrial output. In politics, on 31 May, Latvia’s Parliament will vote for a new president. The outcome of the elections may result in a new governing coalition, potentially leading to changes in domestic policy.