United Kingdom: GDP falls in April
GDP reading: GDP contracted by 0.1% month-on-month in April 2026, in line with expectations, following a 0.3% expansion in March. This marked the first contraction since August last year. Q1 has typically been a strong quarter in recent years, so some payback in April was always on the cards.
Drivers: Services declined in April, while industrial output was flat and construction grew slightly.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Berenberg analysts said:
“We doubt that the economy will sustain its early-2026 momentum. Although household finances are in good shape, a decline in real household disposable income caused by CPI inflation overtaking slowing pay growth should result in a weak patch for consumer demand. Amid a drop in consumer confidence owing to higher petrol prices, mortgage rates and a tough jobs market, we doubt households will use their savings to increase consumption regardless.”