Merchandise exports increase at a slower rate in March

Latest reading: Merchandise exports growth cooled to 14.4% year-on-year in March (February: +26.0% yoy) but exceeded market expectations. Moreover, goods imports growth lost momentum, declining to 19.4% in annual terms in March (February: +40.1% yoy). As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 1.6 billion surplus in March (February 2025: USD 1.5 billion deficit; March 2024: USD 2.8 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend deteriorated, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 19.2 billion surplus in March, compared to the USD 20.4 billion surplus in February.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, Suan Teck Kin and Peter Chia, analysts at United Overseas Bank, said: “Vietnam companies now face the real risks of declines in exports orders as US consumers react to higher prices by cancelling or delaying their purchases, or even considering domestic alternatives as price differentials narrow. For now, we are factoring in a 20% decline of Vietnam’s exports to the US in 2025 (after gaining 20% in 2024).”

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