Inflation falls to over one-year low in June

Latest reading: Inflation eased to 4.6% in June from May’s 5.1%, marking the lowest inflation rate since May 2024 and surprising markets on the downside. Moreover, this was the third consecutive decline, confirming a downward trend toward the midpoint of the Central Bank’s 3.0–6.0% inflation target. Looking at the details of the release, June’s downturn was broad-based, with softer price growth in food, transportation plus housing and utilities. As a result, the trend pointed down slightly, with annual average inflation coming in at 5.2% in June (May: 5.3%). Lastly, consumer prices dropped 0.09% in June over the previous month, swinging from the 0.11% rise logged in May. June's result marked the weakest reading since December 2023.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, Lucila Barbeito and Diego W. Pereira, analysts at JPMorgan, stated “Regarding forecasts, the deceleration in headline inflation proved faster than expected on tradable CPI, prompting us to adjust our headline year-end projection further downward […]. Our forecast entertains an acceleration in monthly inflation in 2H25 to 0.3% monthly average as we anticipate structurally sticky non-tradable prices. On this regard, it is worth noting that the government unveiled today the next 2 year wage guidelines, proposing real salary increases between 2-4%, conditional on income level.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Uruguayan inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 17 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Uruguayan inflation.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Uruguayan inflation projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Uruguayan inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.