Poland Inflation

Inflation eases in June from May

Latest reading: According to a flash estimate, consumer prices were up 2.5% in annual terms in June, following a 3.1% increase in the previous month. As such, inflation came in below market expectations and returned to the Central Bank’s target. Relative to the prior month's figures, there were reduced price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages (-0.4% on a year-on-year basis vs +0.5% in May), electricity, gas and other fuels (+4.8% vs +4.9% in May). Finally, consumer prices fell 0.50% in June on a month-on-month basis, following a 0.30% fall in the prior month.

Panelist insight: ING’s Adam Antoniak commented on the outlook for inflation and monetary policy: “The June inflation reading leaves the Monetary Policy Council in a comfortable position. Inflation is now at target, while the oil market shock has generated only a limited inflationary impulse, largely confined to fuel prices. At the same time, disinflationary – and in the case of food, outright deflationary – trends have persisted in other categories. Even before the June inflation release, markets had already priced out bets on rate hikes. […] Our baseline scenario assumes that the central bank’s policy rates will remain unchanged in the coming months (with the reference rate staying at 3.75%), and that the MPC’s next move will be a rate cut rather than a rate hike.”

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