Poland Inflation

Inflation inches down in May from April

Latest reading: Consumer prices increased 3.1% on a year-on-year basis in May, following a 3.2% increase in the previous month. The reading defied market expectations of faster price growth compared to April. Relative to the previous month's data, there were milder price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.5% on a year-on-year basis vs +1.9% in April). Meanwhile, there were stronger price pressures for housing and utilities (+5.0% yoy vs +4.6% in April) and for transport and fuels (+12.3% yoy vs +8.4% in April).

Panelist insight: ING’s Adam Antoniak commented on the outlook for inflation and monetary policy: “Following the initial shock that pushed up fuel prices in March, overall inflationary pressure now appears contained. The MPC may be more concerned about the potential impact of higher oil prices on economic activity than about the risk of excessive inflation. Household inflation expectations appear well anchored, and there are currently no visible signs of second-round effects. We therefore maintain our forecast that the MPC will keep interest rates unchanged this year.”

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