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Nigeria Commodities November 2023

Nigeria: Nigerian oil output falls in November; crude prices decline

Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 82.19 per barrel in November, down 7.6% from October’s price. On 30 November, the commodity traded at USD 80.68 per barrel, 7.8% lower than on the same day of the previous month. In November, investors continued to reduce their net long positions on crude oil amid lingering concerns surrounding the strength of the global economy.

Turning to production, Nigerian oil output fell to 1.37 million barrels per day (mbpd) in November from October’s downwardly revised 1.39 mbpd.

In other news, in late November, OPEC+ revised Nigeria’s 2024 production target to 1.50 mbpd, up from 1.38 mbpd. This came on the back of positive assessments by several consultancies regarding the country’s production capabilities.

Oil output is projected to rise for the second successive year in 2024. Improved security in the Niger Delta should help boost production, as should the recently-opened Dangote refinery ramping up its output; the refinery is expected to turn Nigeria into a net exporter of fuels ahead after years of being almost completely reliant on imports. That said, our panelists see oil production averaging 1.38 mbdp, below the new 1.50 mbdp OPEC+ target. Renewed turmoil in the Niger Delta poses the key downside risk to crude oil production ahead.

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