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Saudi Arabia Commodities November 2023

Saudi Arabia: Saudi crude output remains low in November; Brent prices fall

Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 82.19 per barrel in November, down 7.6% from October’s price. On 30 November, the commodity traded at USD 80.68 per barrel, 7.8% lower than on the same day of the previous month. In November, investors continued to reduce their net long positions on crude oil amid lingering concerns surrounding the strength of the global economy. Oil prices continued to decline in December.

Turning to production, Saudi oil output rose marginally to 9.00 mbpd (million barrels per day) in November from October’s 8.99 mbpd, but remained at one of the lowest levels in the past decade.

After Saudi crude output fell a projected 9.5% in 2023, our panelists see it growing 1.1% in 2024. Nonetheless, this figure will still be significantly lower than the levels witnessed in 2022, weighed on by production curbs agreed with OPEC in place since June that are due to last until the end of 2023. In addition, this figure is lower than our panelists had expected last month; on 30 November, the government said it would prolong its one-million-barrel-per-day cut until the end of Q1 2024. This unilateral cut could be extended beyond Q1, posing a downside risk to oil production over the year as a whole.

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