Guatemala Economic Forecast

Guatemala Economic Outlook

January 18, 2022

The economic recovery eased in the third quarter amid a less favorable base effect. Domestic demand cooled, although household spending continued to grow at a fairly rapid pace. The external sector’s performance worsened in the quarter, as growth in exports of goods and services decelerated at a quicker pace than imports. Momentum likely continued to ease in Q4. Economic activity growth cooled to an eight-month low in October, while merchandise export growth lost steam in the same month. On the other hand, growth in remittances picked up pace in the quarter as a whole, and reached a five-month high in November. This, coupled with softer price pressures in the quarter, bodes well for household consumption in the final stage of last year. Turning to this year, Covid-19 cases surged in early January, posing a health risk given the country’s low vaccination rate.

Guatemala Economic Growth

The economy will grow at a softer pace this year compared to last. That said, domestic demand will strengthen on the back of softer restrictions and strong remittance inflows, buoying household spending. However, political tensions and Covid-19-related uncertainty amid a low vaccination rate cloud the economic outlook. FocusEconomics panelists estimate the economy to grow 3.8% in 2022, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to expand 3.3% in 2023.

Guatemala Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)16.316.616.917.317.6
GDP per capita (USD)3,8253,9824,2304,2334,353
GDP (USD bn)62.266.071.673.176.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.12.73.03.23.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.73.23.13.84.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.5-1.74.04.67.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.91.50.81.63.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.5-1.1-1.4-1.9-2.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.925.225.226.226.9
Money (annual variation in %)9.56.68.49.49.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.14.25.72.33.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.44.54.43.83.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.003.002.752.752.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7.637.527.357.737.71
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)7.667.607.357.527.70
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.21.01.10.82.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.80.60.80.61.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.0-6.6-7.4-8.7-8.7
Exports (USD billion)10.710.411.011.011.2
Imports (USD billion)17.617.018.419.719.9
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.2-2.15.1-0.11.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.5-3.68.27.01.1
International Reserves (USD)7.89.211.812.814.8
External Debt (% of GDP)32.832.532.130.6-  

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Guatemala Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate7.710.22 %Jan 01

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