Guatemala Economic Forecast

Guatemala Economic Outlook

September 14, 2021

The economy will have expanded at an accelerated rate in the second quarter. Economic activity growth gained steam in the quarter, reaching an all-time high in May. This, coupled with notably stronger growth in merchandise imports in the quarter, suggests domestic demand firmed. Moreover, growth in remittances gained steam in the quarter, boding well for household spending. At the same time, markedly firmer growth in goods exports highlights healthier external demand. Turning to the third quarter, growth in both merchandise exports and imports continued apace in July, hinting at an ongoing recovery in demand dynamics. Moreover, growth in economic activity remained in the double-digits in the same month, while remittances reached an all-time high in USD terms in August. However, authorities maintained various Covid-19 restrictions through late August, likely impeding the recovery in activity somewhat.

Guatemala Economic Growth

Softer lockdown measures at home and abroad should see domestic and foreign demand firm, buoying economic growth. That said, the balance of risks is tilted to the downside amid a potentially prolonged health crisis due to the low domestic vaccination rate. Political turmoil further clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists estimate the economy to grow 4.2% in 2021, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month, and to expand 3.5% in 2022.

Guatemala Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)16.316.616.917.317.6
GDP per capita (USD)3,8253,9824,2304,2334,353
GDP (USD bn)62.266.071.673.176.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.12.73.03.23.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.73.23.13.84.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.5-1.74.04.67.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.91.50.81.63.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.5-1.1-1.4-1.9-2.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.925.225.226.226.9
Money (annual variation in %)9.56.68.49.49.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.14.25.72.33.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.44.54.43.83.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.003.002.752.752.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)7.637.527.357.737.71
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)7.667.607.357.527.70
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.21.01.10.82.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.80.60.80.61.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.0-6.6-7.4-8.7-8.7
Exports (USD billion)10.710.411.011.011.2
Imports (USD billion)17.617.018.419.719.9
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.2-2.15.1-0.11.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.5-3.68.27.01.1
International Reserves (USD)7.89.211.812.814.8
External Debt (% of GDP)32.832.532.130.6-  

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Guatemala Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate7.710.22 %Jan 01

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