Bulgaria Economic Outlook
A small but growing economy:
Bulgaria, the EU’s poorest member state in per capita terms, has made significant economic progress since transitioning from a centrally planned economy in the 1990s. With a GDP of around $90 billion, Bulgaria has sustained steady economic growth in recent years, driven by domestic consumption, EU structural funds, and a competitive export sector. However, growth slowed in 2023 due to high inflation and weaker external demand. The country’s low debt-to-GDP ratio—one of the lowest in the EU—has given policymakers some fiscal flexibility.
Key industries:Bulgaria’s economy is anchored in industrial manufacturing, IT services, and agriculture. The country is a leading producer of copper, gold, and bismuth in Europe, and its industrial base includes chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and electronics. The IT sector has grown rapidly, benefiting from a well-educated workforce and relatively low labor costs, with Bulgaria becoming a nearshoring hub for European tech firms. Agriculture also plays a role in the economy, particularly wheat, sunflower oil, and wine production, with exports going primarily to the EU.
Challenges:Despite economic gains, Bulgaria faces structural challenges, including a shrinking and aging population, corruption concerns, and political instability. Demographic decline is one of the country’s most pressing issues, with emigration further exacerbating labor shortages. Inflation has been a persistent problem, peaking at over 15% in 2022 before easing in 2023. Corruption remains an obstacle to foreign investment, though recent governments have sought to address the issue.
Bulgaria’s economic outlook:Economic conditions in Bulgaria should improve going forward, supported by EU funding, infrastructure investment, and the ongoing digital transformation. The country aims to adopt the euro in the coming years, although persistent inflation and governance issues could delay entry into the eurozone. Demographics will remain a long-term constraint, but Bulgaria’s competitive labor costs and strategic location should help sustain investment in export-oriented industries.
Bulgaria's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 112.2 billion in 2024.
GDP per capita of USD 17,628 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 2.4% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2018, services accounted for 59.3% of overall GDP, manufacturing 14.4%, other industrial activity 23.3%, and agriculture 3.0%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 59.8% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 18.2%, fixed investment 18.8%, and net exports 3.2%.International trade
In 2023, manufactured products made up 55.0% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 7.9%, food 17.4%, ores and metals 12.6% and agricultural raw materials 0.7%, with other categories accounting for 6.4% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 62.9% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 11.1%, food 12.2%, ores and metals 8.7% and agricultural raw materials 1.0%, with other goods accounting for 4.1% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 46 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 51.80 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 2.4% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in Bulgaria, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Bulgaria's fiscal deficit averaged 1.3% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 6.7% in the decade to 2024. For more information on Bulgaria's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 3.4% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Bulgaria inflation page for extra insight.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the lev weakened by 15.8% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the lev, click here.
Economic situation in Bulgaria
According to flash data, the economy grew 2.9% annually in Q1 2026, matching both Q4 2025’s pace and the past-decade average. Fixed investment and final consumption decelerated from Q4, but faster growth in retail sales in Q1 compared to Q4 points to healthy household spending, aided by stronger wage growth and near record-low unemployment rates. Meanwhile, exports of goods and services returned to growth, and import growth almost halved from Q4. In politics, a government led by ex-President Rumen Radev was approved by Parliament in early May. Among the challenges for the new administration will be tackling rapidly rising inflation, passing swift reforms to secure EU fund disbursements by their August expiry date, and passing the budget. Nonetheless, one of its first moves has been to change parliamentary rules to limit the ability of the opposition to hold the government to account.Bulgaria Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2035.57 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 72 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Bulgaria in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2035 on 57 economic indicators for Bulgaria from a panel of 72 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Bulgaria economy. To download a sample report on the Bulgaria's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.
Bulgaria Economic Indicators
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.3 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 17.6 | 21.1 | 22.6 | 25.6 | 28.3 | 32.7 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 2,549 | 3,083 | 3,509 | 3,964 | 4,401 | 5,225 |
| GDP (EUR bn) | 61.9 | 71.3 | 86.1 | 94.5 | 104.8 | 111.9 |
| GDP per Capita (EUR) | 8,943 | 10,432 | 13,350 | 14,665 | 16,275 | 18,525 |
| GDP (BGN bn) | 62 | 71 | 86 | 95 | 105 | 116 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.1 | 15.3 | 20.7 | 9.8 | 10.8 | 6.9 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.1 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) | 0.5 | 7.2 | 5.9 | -1.9 | 4.7 | 7.7 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | -0.2 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 5.0 | 7.8 |
| Government Consumption (ann. var. %) | 8.3 | 0.5 | 8.0 | 1.1 | 3.6 | 6.8 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 0.6 | -8.3 | 6.5 | 10.2 | 1.5 | 11.4 |
| Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) | -9.6 | 11.6 | 12.1 | 0.0 | 1.8 | -2.1 |
| Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) | -4.2 | 10.7 | 15.3 | -5.5 | 3.9 | 5.9 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -5.9 | 9.8 | 12.7 | -8.4 | -3.1 | -7.7 |
| Retail Sales (ann. var. %) | 2.4 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 6.9 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 6.1 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.8 | -4.0 | -2.9 | -2.0 | -3.0 | -3.5 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 24.5 | 23.8 | 22.5 | 22.9 | 23.8 | 29.9 |
| Money (ann. var. of M2 %) | 6.5 | 11.3 | 17.4 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) | 0.1 | 7.8 | 16.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 5.0 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.7 | 3.3 | 15.3 | 9.5 | 2.4 | 4.6 |
| Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) | -2.0 | 15.3 | 37.3 | -9.0 | -2.9 | 11.1 |
| Base Interest Rate (%, eop) | -0.55 | -0.57 | 2.13 | 3.91 | 2.71 | 2.03 |
| Stock Market (ann. var. of SOFIX %) | -21.2 | 42.0 | -5.4 | 27.2 | 16.7 | 29.5 |
| Exchange Rate (BGN per USD, eop) | 1.60 | 1.72 | 1.83 | 1.77 | 1.88 | 1.68 |
| Exchange Rate (BGN per EUR, eop) | 1.95 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.96 |
| Current Account Balance (EUR bn) | 1.0 | 0.1 | -1.2 | -1.1 | -0.6 | -6.7 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 1.6 | 0.2 | -1.4 | -1.2 | -0.5 | -5.7 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) | -1.9 | -2.9 | -5.1 | -3.9 | -5.1 | -9.3 |
| Merchandise Exports (EUR bn) | 27.3 | 34.4 | 47.1 | 43.5 | 43.7 | 42.4 |
| Merchandise Imports (EUR bn) | 29.2 | 37.3 | 52.2 | 47.5 | 48.8 | 51.7 |
| Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) | -6.3 | 26.2 | 37.0 | -7.6 | 0.5 | -3.0 |
| Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) | -8.8 | 27.7 | 40.1 | -9.1 | 2.8 | 6.0 |
| Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) | 2.6 | 1.5 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 3.0 | - |
| International Reserves (EUR bn) | 30.9 | 34.6 | 38.4 | 41.9 | 42.1 | 40.1 |
| International Reserves (months of imports) | 12.7 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 9.3 |
| External Debt (EUR bn) | 38.8 | 41.2 | 43.3 | 45.0 | 50.7 | 58.6 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 62.7 | 57.7 | 50.3 | 47.6 | 48.3 | 50.5 |