Merchandise exports accelerate in June

Merchandise exports jumped 23.5% on an annual basis in June (May: +3.5% year-on-year), beating market expectations. The result marked the most robust growth since February 2022, and was largely due to a more-than-doubling of IT exports thanks to booming global demand for AI products. Meanwhile, merchandise imports climbed 33.9% in annual terms in June (May: +0.6% yoy), marking the strongest result since February 2022. As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 4.7 billion surplus in June (May 2024: USD 6.0 billion surplus; June 2023: USD 6.0 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend pointed down, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 90.3 billion surplus in June, compared to the USD 91.7 billion surplus in May.

On the outlook and implications for GDP, ING’s Lynn Song said: “Moving forward, export and import growth should moderate from June's extraordinarily strong read. Year-on-year numbers should remain well supported for most of the second half of 2024. More importantly for growth will be how the trade surplus develops, and if we can see a sustained broader recovery in non-semiconductor related export categories. In general, and with recent economic data trending stronger than expected amid the semiconductor boom, we have upgraded our 2024 GDP growth forecast to 3.8% YoY.”

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