Inflation in Russia
Russia - Inflation
Inflation comes in at highest level since October 2016 in May
Consumer prices increased 0.74% from the previous month in May, picking up from April's 0.58% increase. The upturn was chiefly led by higher prices for goods amid fast-rising prices for food products, while services prices rose at a milder pace.
Inflation increased to 6.0% in May, from April’s 5.5%. May's result represented the highest inflation rate since October 2016. Meanwhile, the trend pointed up mildly, with annual average inflation coming in at 4.6% in May (April: 4.4%). Core inflation rose to 6.0% in May, from the previous month's 5.5%.
Commenting on the result and monetary policy outlook, Anatoliy A Shal, economist at J.P.Morgan, said:
Given the upside surprise and assuming some more inertia, we have lifted our end-2021 inflation forecast to 5.4%oya from 4.9% previously. […] We believe that the CBR will now have to continue acting decisively and therefore change our call for this Friday’s meeting to 50bp hike from 25bp previously. This hike will likely be followed by another 50bp hike to 6.0% in July (previously 25bp), after which the CBR will take a protracted pause to assess the effect. We have lifted our estimate of the terminal rate in this cycle to 6.0% from 5.75% previously, but risks remain skewed to upside.”
FocusEconomics panelists see inflation ending 2021 at 4.8%, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2022, participants project inflation to also end the year at 3.8%.
Russia - Inflation Data
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||15.5||7.1||3.7||2.9||4.5|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Russia Inflation Chart
Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||6.23||0.13 %||Dec 30|
|Exchange Rate||62.03||-0.12 %||Dec 30|
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June 8, 2021
Consumer prices increased 0.74% from the previous month in May, picking up from April's 0.58% increase.
June 3, 2021
The IHS Markit Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 57.5 in May from April's 55.2.
June 1, 2021
The IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 51.9 in May, up from April's 50.4.
May 26, 2021
Industrial output grew 7.2% year-on-year in April (March: +2.3% yoy).
May 17, 2021
The economy contracted 1.0% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021, according to a preliminary estimate released by Rosstat on 17 May.