Inflation in Russia
Russia - Inflation
Inflation hits highest level since November 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.20% in June over the last month, slowing down from May's 0.27% increase. June's result marked the softest rise in prices since October 2019.
Inflation came in at 3.2% in June, up from May’s 3.0% print. June's figure was the highest inflation rate since November 2019. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down mildly, with annual average inflation coming in at 3.3% in June (May: 3.4%). Core inflation was steady coming in at May's 2.9% in June.
Commenting on inflation outlook, Dmitry Dolgin, chief Russia economist at ING, said:
“Given that the current pick-up in CPI is caused largely by the base effect, and given new disinflationary factors, we now do not exclude downside to our CPI forecast that we recently lowered to 3.7% YoY for year-end 2020. This reaffirms our view that the key rate has at least 50 bp downside from the current 4.5% level, to be realized throughout 2H20, and the likelihood of a 25 bp cut in July has increased. Meanwhile, pro-inflationary risks attributable to the possible return of FX volatility in 2H20 and a pick-up in consumer demand may return to focus later in the year.”
FocusEconomics panelists see inflation ending 2020 at 3.8%, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, participants project inflation to end the year at 3.5%.
Russia - Inflation Data
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||15.5||7.1||3.7||2.9||4.5|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Russia Inflation Chart
Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||6.23||0.13 %||Dec 30|
|Exchange Rate||62.03||-0.12 %||Dec 30|
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July 8, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.20% in June over the last month, slowing down from May's 0.27% increase.
July 7, 2020
The second-quarter consumer confidence index, published by the Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) on 7 July, nosedived to minus 30 points, from the first quarter’s minus 11 points and marking the worst reading since Q1 2016.
July 3, 2020
The Russia IHS Markit Services PMI jumped to 47.8 in June, from 35.9 in May, amid easing lockdown measures.
July 3, 2020
A third estimate of national accounts data released by Rosstat on 3 July confirmed that growth moderated to 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020.
July 1, 2020
The Russia IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI rebounded strongly at the end of Q2, coming in at 49.4 in June.