Inflation in Russia

Russia Inflation | Economic News & Forecasts

Russia - Inflation

Inflation comes in at highest level since October 2016 in May

Consumer prices increased 0.74% from the previous month in May, picking up from April's 0.58% increase. The upturn was chiefly led by higher prices for goods amid fast-rising prices for food products, while services prices rose at a milder pace.

Inflation increased to 6.0% in May, from April’s 5.5%. May's result represented the highest inflation rate since October 2016. Meanwhile, the trend pointed up mildly, with annual average inflation coming in at 4.6% in May (April: 4.4%). Core inflation rose to 6.0% in May, from the previous month's 5.5%.

Commenting on the result and monetary policy outlook, Anatoliy A Shal, economist at J.P.Morgan, said:

Given the upside surprise and assuming some more inertia, we have lifted our end-2021 inflation forecast to 5.4%oya from 4.9% previously. […] We believe that the CBR will now have to continue acting decisively and therefore change our call for this Friday’s meeting to 50bp hike from 25bp previously. This hike will likely be followed by another 50bp hike to 6.0% in July (previously 25bp), after which the CBR will take a protracted pause to assess the effect. We have lifted our estimate of the terminal rate in this cycle to 6.0% from 5.75% previously, but risks remain skewed to upside.”

FocusEconomics panelists see inflation ending 2021 at 4.8%, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2022, participants project inflation to also end the year at 3.8%.

Russia - Inflation Data

2015   2016   2017   2018   2019  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)15.5  7.1  3.7  2.9  4.5  

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Russia Inflation Chart


Russia Inflation
Note: Annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and FocusEconomics calculations.

Russia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield6.230.13 %Dec 30
Exchange Rate62.03-0.12 %Dec 30

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