Inflation in Romania
Romania - Harmonized Inflation
Inflation soars in October
Consumer prices soared 1.78% over the previous month in October, coming in well above September’s 0.84% rise and logging the highest print since May 2005. The jump was largely driven by rising prices for food and non-food goods.
Inflation climbed to 7.9% in October from 6.3% in September. October’s result represented the joint highest inflation rate since June 2011. Accordingly, the trend pointed up, with annual average inflation coming in at 4.1% in October (September: 3.6%). Commenting on the inflation outlook, Valentin Tataru, chief economist at ING, said:
“An optimist could say that the higher inflation prints now mean stronger disinflationary base effects next year. There is some truth to that, but that’s not how inflation will stay sustainably lower. We believe that the NBR will need to continue with its rate hiking cycle until it reaches a terminal rate of 3.00% in mid-2022. If given the chance, we think that the central bank would like to do less tightening, but the context doesn’t seem to help their wishful dovish stance. In parallel, the FX rate will remain tightly managed and the 4.95 level should hold for most of 2022 as well.”
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see inflation averaging 4.5% in 2022, which is up 0.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2023, panelists see inflation averaging 3.3%.
Romania - Harmonized Inflation Data
|Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)||-0.4||-1.1||1.1||4.1||3.9|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Romania Harmonized Inflation Chart
Source: National Institute of Statistics and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||4.49||0.23 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||4.26||-0.34 %||Dec 31|
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Romania: Romania’s new coalition government ends political crisis but raises concerns over fiscal consolidation
November 25, 2021
On 25 November, following two failed attempts, Nicolae Ciuca’s new coalition government won more than 70% of the vote in parliament, putting an end to nearly three months of political crisis after the fall of Florin Cî?u’s coalition government in early September.
November 17, 2021
The economy continued to grow, albeit at a softer pace, in the third quarter.
November 12, 2021
Industrial output tumbled to 3.3% in annual terms in September, contrasting the prior month’s 0.2% increase and logging the worst print in over a year.
November 11, 2021
Consumer prices soared 1.78% over the previous month in October, coming in well above September’s 0.84% rise and logging the highest print since May 2005.
November 9, 2021
At its 9 November meeting, the last for the year, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) raised the policy rate to 1.75% from 1.50%.