Czech Republic Government Consumption

Economic growth slows in the first quarter of 2026

Q1 clocks weakest GDP reading since Q3 2023: The Czech Republic's GDP expanded 0.2% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q1, following 0.7% growth in the previous quarter. Q1's reading was the weakest since Q3 2023. In year-on-year terms, seasonally adjusted GDP expanded 2.2% in Q1, following a 2.7% expansion in the previous quarter, and slightly revised up from the initial flash estimate of 2.1%.

Q1 growth held back by domestic demand and trade: Compared to the previous period's data, figures in Q1 worsened for private consumption (+0.6% in seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms vs +1.2% in Q4), government consumption (-0.3% vs 0.0% in Q4) and fixed investment (+2.0% vs +2.8% in Q4). In contrast, readings picked up for exports of goods and services (+3.8% vs +0.8% in Q4) and imports of goods and services (+5.8% vs +0.6% in Q4). Accordingly, the deceleration was driven by softer momentum in domestic demand, while net trade detracted from growth as imports grew faster than exports, largely due to higher energy imports and increased purchases of electronic and optical products. On the flipside, GDP growth was boosted by inventory accumulation, linked to firms’ concerns over higher future input and energy costs linked to the Iran war.

2026 GDP growth to trail 2025’s rate: Sequential GDP growth is expected to strengthen slightly in the coming quarters, though full-year 2026 growth is still projected to come in below 2025’s pace as a result of weaker export growth and the hit to domestic demand from the Iran energy shock. That said, household spending should remain solid, supported by near-target inflation, lower taxes and higher welfare transfers; moreover, EU Recovery and Resilience Fund disbursements are expected to boost investment activity.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Czech government consumption projections for the next ten years from a panel of 18 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable government consumption forecast available for Czech government consumption.

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