Poland Inflation

Inflation rises in August from the prior month

Latest reading: Consumer prices increased 3.4% on a year-on-year basis in August, following a 3.0% rise in the previous month. August's reading was the strongest since June 2025 and exceeded market expectations of a softer uptick. Still, price pressures remained within the Central Bank’s 1.5–3.5% tolerance range. Relative to the prior month's figures, there were higher price pressures for electricity, gas and other fuels (+4.1% in annual terms vs +4.0% in July) and fuels for personal transport (+24.2% vs +15.8% in July). In contrast, price pressures reduced for food and non-alcoholic beverages in August (-0.9% vs -0.4% in July). Lastly, consumer prices rose 0.40% in August in month-on-month terms, following a 0.80% rise in the prior month.

Panelist insight: Erste Bank’s Grzegorz Ogonek commented: “Already in the September print, inflation may move above 3.5% y/y and possibly stay above the level for the rest of the year and in early 2027. 4% y/y CPI growth seems possible in December. In our view, the new data on CPI should prevent the [Central Bank] from considering a discussion on rate cuts in the near future, and the rhetoric should be balanced, pointing to wait-and-see stance. We think that the breach of inflation above the tolerance band around the inflation target would not be enough to convince the MPC that monetary policy tightening should be applied, given the transitory nature of the rise above 3.5% y/y we envisage. The future path of energy commodity prices remains a key source of uncertainty for Polish inflation. The unfavorable weather conditions will, in our view, cause an increase in food price inflation in the second half of the year.”

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