United States: Employment rises less than expected in June
Latest reading: The US economy added 57,000 jobs in June 2026, well below a downwardly revised 129,000 in May and forecasts of 110,000. This was the weakest jobs gain in four months, following three consecutive months of stronger-than-expected increases. However, it was broadly in line with the average monthly change over the prior 12 months.
In June, employment continued to rise in professional and business services, social assistance and health care. In contrast, employment in leisure and hospitality slumped. Meanwhile, employment was little changed across other major industries.
Finally, the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2% in June from 4.3% in May.
Panelist insight: Digging into the data, Nomura analysts said:
“The deceleration in job gains this month was largely driven by a reversal of temporary factors that boosted the May print. Leisure and hospitality employment fell 61k in June, and was revised down by 67k over the prior two months, accounting for nearly all of the negative revisions to headline NFP. 41k out of 67k came from revisions to seasonal adjustment factors, suggesting difficulties of seasonal adjustment in the summer hiring season. The combination of a June slowdown and negative revisions suggests May’s strong print for leisure and hospitality was likely due to seasonal noise, rather than a boost from the start of the World Cup. Local government employment growth also mean-reverted lower after an outsized gain in May. Excluding these volatile components, employment growth was stable and the breadth of job gains remained solid.”