New Zealand: Business confidence jumps in July
Latest reading: The ANZ Business Confidence Index climbed sharply to 56.1 in July, from 36.6 in June, remaining comfortably above the zero threshold that separates optimism from pessimism. The result indicates a further substantial strengthening in business sentiment, with confidence and firms’ expectations for their own activity reaching historically solid levels. However, responses collected later in July were less upbeat than those received earlier in the month. This followed an increase in the Central Bank’s Official Cash Rate and a sharp rise in oil prices amid worsening tensions in the Middle East, with forward-looking activity indicators generally weaker in the late-month sample.
The improvement was broad-based, with stronger activity, export, investment, employment and profit expectations. Credit conditions and construction intentions also improved. However, reported past activity—which has the strongest correlation with GDP—rose only modestly, indicating that actual conditions continued to lag the more optimistic outlook.