Greece Economic Forecast

Greece Economic Outlook

October 26, 2021

Following Q2’s solid rebound, the economy likely expanded at a softer, albeit still-strong, pace in the third quarter. Industrial output growth came in above Q2’s average in monthly terms in July–August, hinting at firming private sector activity. On top of this, a multi-year low unemployment rate in the same period will have boosted household spending. Nonetheless, a nearly 10-year high inflation rate in September, amid soaring energy prices, likely capped private consumption growth. Meanwhile, upbeat tourist arrivals in August, according to secondary data, seemingly buoyed the external sector. In other news, on 4 October the government tabled the draft 2022 budget, which sees total spending at EUR 64.3 billion (2021: EUR 70.7 billion). The draft bill rests on a 4.5% growth estimate and a fiscal deficit forecast of 0.9%, highlighting the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation.

Greece Economic Growth

The economy is expected to grow at a weaker, albeit still-healthy, rate in 2022, supported by the fading impact of the pandemic, which will allow for undisrupted growth in domestic activity and the recovery of the crucial tourism sector. On top of this, incoming EU funds, with the largest share of the recovery fund to be dispersed in 2022, will further drive investment. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 4.6% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2023, the panel sees the economy expanding 3.6%.

Greece Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.910.810.810.710.7
GDP per capita (EUR)16,32516,36616,73717,19717,497
GDP (EUR bn)177176180185187
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.5-0.31.41.91.9
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-1.40.51.60.41.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.30.10.90.90.7
Investment (annual variation in %)0.64.69.4-12.04.5
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)2.8-1.96.98.74.9
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.41.17.43.02.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.32.63.91.6-0.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-1.5-0.61.31.40.8
Unemployment Rate25.023.621.519.317.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.60.50.71.01.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)176179176181177
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)0.40.31.00.61.1
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-1.10.01.10.80.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-7.2-5.75.34.30.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-23.62.024.7-23.649.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.8-1.7-1.9-2.8-1.4
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-1.4-3.1-3.4-5.2-2.6
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-17.7-18.0-19.8-22.5-22.8

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Greece Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.910.76 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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