Greece Economic Outlook
October 27, 2020Following a record GDP contraction in Q2, available data points to a gradual recovery in Q3. The unemployment rate, which had been rising since the outbreak of the crisis in March, dropped in July, while retail sales declined at a softer pace in August, boding well for household consumption. Additionally, the manufacturing PMI rose in August and again in September to a seven-month high, on the back of stabilizing output. Less positively, tourism revenues in the peak July–August months were down by over 75% compared to 2019, while consumer sentiment deteriorated for the third month running in September. This, together with a surge in new Covid-19 cases, should weigh on the recovery in Q4. Lastly, on 5 October, the government unveiled a EUR 63.9 billion 2021 draft budget—slightly smaller than last year—based on a 7.5% GDP growth rate and envisioning a primary fiscal deficit of 1.0% of GDP.
Greece Economic GrowthThe economy is seen rebounding strongly in 2021, supported by reviving private and capital spending and incoming EU funding. Moreover, the gradual easing of Covid-19 restrictions globally should bolster the crucial tourism industry. That said, the banking sector’s high ratio of non-performing loans and the country’s massive public debt pose key downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 5.1% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2022 the panel sees the economy expanding 4.0%.
Greece Economy Data
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Greece Economic News
November 9, 2020
Industrial output slid 2.4% year-on-year in working-day adjusted terms in September, a softer drop compared to August’s 4.0% decline.
November 5, 2020
The number of unemployed workers decreased by 13,914 in August compared to July while the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 16.8% from the previous month’s revised 17.0% (previously reported: 16.8%), according to data released by the Hellenic Statistical Authority.
November 2, 2020
The IHS Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped from 50.0 in September to 48.7 in October.
October 9, 2020
Industrial output fell 3.8% year-on-year in working-day adjusted terms in August, dropping at a significantly faster pace than July’s 0.2% decline and marking the 11th consecutive month of contraction.
October 8, 2020
The number of unemployed workers decreased by 69,395 in July compared to June while the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 16.8% from the previous month’s revised 18.0% (previously reported: 18.3%), according to data released by the Hellenic Statistical Authority.