Greece Economic Forecast

Greece Economic Outlook

November 20, 2018

The economic recovery is expected to have remained in place in recent months, although growth continues to be weak and uneven. The labor market’s revival continued in August, with the unemployment rate hitting a new seven-year low. Retail sales also grew strongly in the month, which bodes well for private consumption in Q3. However, economic sentiment fell to a seven-month low in October and the manufacturing PMI receded in the same month, pointing to weakening industrial activity. Meanwhile, on 15 November, the Eurogroup Working Group gave a preliminary green light to the Greek government’s plan to suspend planned pension cuts. The government had scheduled to slash pensions next year according to its agreement with its creditors, however, it had argued that its above-target primary surplus gave it sufficient breathing room to avoid the unpopular cut.

Greece Economic Growth

Falling unemployment and booming investment should fuel growth next year. However, uncertainty over the country’s 2019 elections and the government’s commitment to reforms and fiscal rigidity cast doubt on the country’s longer-term prospects. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s projection, and 1.8% in 2020.

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Greece Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.930.76 %Dec 12
Exchange Rate1.140.65 %Dec 12
Stock Market646-1.46 %Dec 12

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