Greece Economic Outlook
October 27, 2020
Following a record GDP contraction in Q2, available data points to a gradual recovery in Q3. The unemployment rate, which had been rising since the outbreak of the crisis in March, dropped in July, while retail sales declined at a softer pace in August, boding well for household consumption. Additionally, the manufacturing PMI rose in August and again in September to a seven-month high, on the back of stabilizing output. Less positively, tourism revenues in the peak July–August months were down by over 75% compared to 2019, while consumer sentiment deteriorated for the third month running in September. This, together with a surge in new Covid-19 cases, should weigh on the recovery in Q4. Lastly, on 5 October, the government unveiled a EUR 63.9 billion 2021 draft budget—slightly smaller than last year—based on a 7.5% GDP growth rate and envisioning a primary fiscal deficit of 1.0% of GDP.Greece Economic Growth
The economy is seen rebounding strongly in 2021, supported by reviving private and capital spending and incoming EU funding. Moreover, the gradual easing of Covid-19 restrictions globally should bolster the crucial tourism industry. That said, the banking sector’s high ratio of non-performing loans and the country’s massive public debt pose key downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 5.1% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2022 the panel sees the economy expanding 4.0%.Greece Economy Data
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Greece Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 1.91 | 0.76 % | Jan 01 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.12 | 0.65 % | Dec 31 |
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Greece Economic News
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Greece: Decline in industrial activity softens in September
November 9, 2020
Industrial output slid 2.4% year-on-year in working-day adjusted terms in September, a softer drop compared to August’s 4.0% decline.
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Greece: Unemployment rate drops for third month running in August
November 5, 2020
The number of unemployed workers decreased by 13,914 in August compared to July while the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 16.8% from the previous month’s revised 17.0% (previously reported: 16.8%), according to data released by the Hellenic Statistical Authority.
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Greece: Manufacturing PMI returns to contractionary terrain in October
November 2, 2020
The IHS Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped from 50.0 in September to 48.7 in October.
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Greece: Industrial output drops for 11th-consecutive month in August
October 9, 2020
Industrial output fell 3.8% year-on-year in working-day adjusted terms in August, dropping at a significantly faster pace than July’s 0.2% decline and marking the 11th consecutive month of contraction.
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Greece: Unemployment rate drops to its lowest in three months in July
October 8, 2020
The number of unemployed workers decreased by 69,395 in July compared to June while the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 16.8% from the previous month’s revised 18.0% (previously reported: 18.3%), according to data released by the Hellenic Statistical Authority.
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