Greece Economic Forecast

Greece Economic Outlook

May 31, 2022

Output growth was likely resilient in the first quarter of this year. The services sector benefited from an improving labor market and reduced Covid restrictions while industrial output grew at the fastest pace in 16 months in March. That said, the manufacturing PMI dipped to an 11-month low in March, as the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war hit sentiment. Moreover, consumer confidence worsened during the quarter amid soaring prices, which could have limited private consumption. In Q2, the economy is likely losing steam. In April, consumer confidence continued to worsen and inflation rose to the highest level in 27 years, which is likely tempering private spending. However, the manufacturing PMI improved slightly in April. Meanwhile, in early May, Greece removed virtually all remaining Covid-19 restrictions, which should help spur the tourism industry heading into the summer season.

Greece Economic Growth

GDP growth is forecast to cool this year, partly due to deteriorating external demand and soaring inflation. That said, EU financial support for Greece is amongst the largest in the EU, which should support output. Additionally, a restriction-free tourism season bodes well for activity. High public debt and poor tax collection capabilities remain key downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 3.2% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2023, the panel sees the economy expanding 3.5%.

Greece Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.910.810.810.710.7
GDP per capita (EUR)16,32516,36616,73717,19717,497
GDP (EUR bn)177176180185187
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.5-0.31.41.91.9
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-1.40.51.60.41.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.30.10.90.90.7
Investment (annual variation in %)0.64.69.4-12.04.5
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)2.8-1.96.98.74.9
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.41.17.43.02.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.32.63.91.6-0.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-1.5-0.61.31.40.8
Unemployment Rate25.023.621.519.317.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.60.50.71.01.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)176179176181177
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)0.40.31.00.61.1
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-1.10.01.10.80.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-7.2-5.75.34.30.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-23.62.024.7-23.649.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.8-1.7-1.9-2.8-1.4
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-1.4-3.1-3.4-5.2-2.6
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-17.7-18.0-19.8-22.5-22.8

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Greece Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.910.76 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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