Greece Economic Forecast

Greece Economic Outlook

November 21, 2017

Incoming data suggests that the economy is set to grow this year, although the recovery is likely to be moderate overall. An improving labor market—the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level since November 2011 in August—should give a boost to household spending. However, recent manufacturing figures are less bright: Industrial production growth slowed in September, and the manufacturing PMI eased in October. Policymakers are preparing for a summer exit from the country’s third bailout program. On 15 November, the government launched a EUR 30 billion debt swap designed to boost liquidity and help facilitate future sales. The government will need to tap into markets again next year to cover its financing needs once it exits the program. Preserving investor confidence will be key to regaining financial freedom; bond yields have fallen notably this year.

Greece Economic Growth

Recovering business and consumer sentiment, along with gains in the labor market, should fuel faster growth next year. An orderly exit from the third bailout, however, will be crucial to the country’s prospects. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.0% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2019, growth is expected to edge up to 2.1%.

Greece Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)11.111.010.910.910.9
GDP per capita (EUR)17,24716,41716,28416,18216,210
GDP (EUR bn)191181178176176
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-7.3-3.20.4-0.20.0
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-9.8-4.1-0.6-0.20.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)-8.0-2.60.4-0.21.4
Investment (annual variation in %)-23.5-8.4-4.6-0.20.1
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)1.21.57.83.4-2.0
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)-9.1-2.47.60.3-0.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-2.0-3.2-1.91.02.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-12.2-8.1-0.4-1.5-0.6
Unemployment Rate24.627.526.525.023.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-8.9-13.1-3.7-5.90.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)160177180177179
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)0.3-1.8-2.50.40.3
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.0-0.9-1.4-1.10.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)4.8-0.9-1.2-  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.750.250.05-  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)33.428.1-28.9-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.321.381.21-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.291.331.33-  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.8-2.0-1.60.1-0.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-7.3-3.7-2.90.2-1.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-19.8-15.2-17.0-14.3-16.0

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Greece Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.260.76 %Dec 06
Exchange Rate1.180.65 %Dec 06
Stock Market728-1.46 %Dec 06

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