Greece Economic Forecast

Greece Economic Outlook

June 2, 2020

The economy is set to have suffered a severe blow in Q1 due to the coronavirus pandemic and associated containment measures, with the full brunt of the impact to be felt in Q2. The vital tourism sector, in particular, is already showing signs of extreme duress: In March, tourism revenues plunged by over 70% year-on-year, the sharpest fall ever, as air travel was suspended and businesses closed up shop. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI collapsed at an unprecedented rate in April, with output, new orders and employment declining the most since 1999 as the pandemic swept through the continent, shattering demand. As part of efforts to revive the tourism industry, some hospitality businesses started to reopen on 25 May, with hotels following suit on 1 June and direct flights resuming on 15 June. The government also announced a series of VAT cuts to stimulate consumption.

Greece Economic Growth

The economy is expected to fall into recession this year as the pandemic and lockdown measures take their toll, particularly as the economy’s high dependence on the tourism sector and large share of micro businesses make it more vulnerable to the Covid-19 shock. The country’s enormous pile of public debt and sour loans burdening the banking system cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 8.4% in 2020, which is down 0.9 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and growing 5.7% in 2021.

Greece Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.910.810.810.710.7
GDP per capita (EUR)16,32516,36616,73717,197-  
GDP (EUR bn)177176180185-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.5-0.31.41.9-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-1.40.51.60.4-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.30.10.91.0-  
Investment (annual variation in %)0.64.69.4-12.0-  
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)2.8-1.96.98.7-  
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.41.27.43.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.32.63.91.6-0.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-1.5-0.61.31.4-  
Unemployment Rate25.023.521.519.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.60.50.71.0-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)176179176181-  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)0.40.31.00.6-  
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-1.10.01.10.80.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-7.2-5.75.34.30.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-23.62.024.7-23.649.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.8-1.7-1.9-2.8-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-1.4-3.1-3.4-5.2-2.6
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-17.7-18.0-19.8-22.5-22.8

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Greece Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.910.76 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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