Greece Economic Forecast

Greece Economic Outlook

October 27, 2020

Following a record GDP contraction in Q2, available data points to a gradual recovery in Q3. The unemployment rate, which had been rising since the outbreak of the crisis in March, dropped in July, while retail sales declined at a softer pace in August, boding well for household consumption. Additionally, the manufacturing PMI rose in August and again in September to a seven-month high, on the back of stabilizing output. Less positively, tourism revenues in the peak July–August months were down by over 75% compared to 2019, while consumer sentiment deteriorated for the third month running in September. This, together with a surge in new Covid-19 cases, should weigh on the recovery in Q4. Lastly, on 5 October, the government unveiled a EUR 63.9 billion 2021 draft budget—slightly smaller than last year—based on a 7.5% GDP growth rate and envisioning a primary fiscal deficit of 1.0% of GDP.

Greece Economic Growth

The economy is seen rebounding strongly in 2021, supported by reviving private and capital spending and incoming EU funding. Moreover, the gradual easing of Covid-19 restrictions globally should bolster the crucial tourism industry. That said, the banking sector’s high ratio of non-performing loans and the country’s massive public debt pose key downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 5.1% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2022 the panel sees the economy expanding 4.0%.

Greece Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.910.810.810.710.7
GDP per capita (EUR)16,32516,36616,73717,19717,497
GDP (EUR bn)177176180185187
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.5-0.31.41.91.9
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-1.40.51.60.41.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.30.10.90.90.7
Investment (annual variation in %)0.64.69.4-12.04.5
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)2.8-1.96.98.74.9
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.41.17.43.02.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.32.63.91.6-0.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-1.5-0.61.31.40.8
Unemployment Rate25.023.621.519.317.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.60.50.71.01.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)176179176181177
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)0.40.31.00.61.1
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-1.10.01.10.80.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-7.2-5.75.34.30.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-23.62.024.7-23.649.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.8-1.7-1.9-2.8-1.4
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-1.4-3.1-3.4-5.2-2.6
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-17.7-18.0-19.8-22.5-22.8

Sample Report

5 years of Greece economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Greece Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.910.76 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

Request a Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Greece Economic News

Search form