Greece Economic Forecast

Greece Economic Outlook

September 25, 2018

The economy lost pace in the second quarter as domestic demand waned. Sustained austerity measures and sky-high unemployment dented private consumption growth, despite signs of a moderate improvement in the labor market. In addition, public spending dipped in the quarter as the government remained committed to its fiscal consolidation plans. On a brighter note, booming inbound tourism propped up the external sector in the quarter. Available economic indicators appear more upbeat for the third quarter: economic sentiment shot up to an over four-year high in August, and a solid outturn by the manufacturing sector buoyed otherwise lackluster industrial output growth in July. On the heels of exiting its third government bailout, on 28 August, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras reshuffled his cabinet. The reshuffle involved few key posts and was likely aimed at shoring up government support before next year’s election.

Greece Economic Growth

Hard-earned momentum should carry into next year as the economy finally emerges from eight years of creditor bailouts. Improving labor market dynamics and a pick-up in investment activity should drive the recovery. However, doubts remain over long-term debt sustainability and the government’s willingness to maintain fiscal discipline. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.0% in 2018 and 2.0% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s projection.

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Greece Facts

Bond Yield5.050.76 %Oct 12
Exchange Rate1.160.65 %Oct 12
Stock Market628-1.46 %Oct 12

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