Greece Economic Outlook
October 27, 2020Following a record GDP contraction in Q2, available data points to a gradual recovery in Q3. The unemployment rate, which had been rising since the outbreak of the crisis in March, dropped in July, while retail sales declined at a softer pace in August, boding well for household consumption. Additionally, the manufacturing PMI rose in August and again in September to a seven-month high, on the back of stabilizing output. Less positively, tourism revenues in the peak July–August months were down by over 75% compared to 2019, while consumer sentiment deteriorated for the third month running in September. This, together with a surge in new Covid-19 cases, should weigh on the recovery in Q4. Lastly, on 5 October, the government unveiled a EUR 63.9 billion 2021 draft budget—slightly smaller than last year—based on a 7.5% GDP growth rate and envisioning a primary fiscal deficit of 1.0% of GDP.
Greece Economic GrowthThe economy is seen rebounding strongly in 2021, supported by reviving private and capital spending and incoming EU funding. Moreover, the gradual easing of Covid-19 restrictions globally should bolster the crucial tourism industry. That said, the banking sector’s high ratio of non-performing loans and the country’s massive public debt pose key downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 5.1% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2022 the panel sees the economy expanding 4.0%.
Greece Economy Data
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Greece Economic News
July 9, 2021
Industrial output increased 14.0% year-on-year in May, which followed April's 22.7% increase.
July 7, 2021
The number of unemployed workers increased by 38,683 in April compared to March, while the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate rose to 17.0% from March’s upward revised 16.8% (previously reported: 16.3%).
July 1, 2021
The IHS Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 58.6 in June, inching above May’s 58.0 reading and logging the best result in over 21 years.
June 11, 2021
The number of unemployed workers decreased by 18,384 in March compared to February, while the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate edged down to 16.3% from February’s upward revised 16.6% (previously reported: 15.9%).
June 10, 2021
Industrial output expanded 22.5% year-on-year in April (March: +5.7% yoy).