Greece Economic Forecast

Greece Economic Outlook

December 23, 2021

Following Q2’s robust rebound, GDP expanded at a somewhat softer, albeit still-solid, pace in Q3, largely benefiting from an upbeat external sector amid the country’s peak tourist season. Domestically, capital spending grew at a faster pace as easing concerns over the pandemic spurred investment, while household consumption lost steam. Turning to Q4, activity growth should have moderated further. A rising unemployment rate at the outset of the quarter, coupled with still-strong pessimism among consumers and high price pressures in October–November, bodes ill for household spending. However, the government’s recent announcement of new measures to counter the impact of elevated inflation for households and businesses should somewhat ease the burden. Meanwhile, tighter entry restrictions from 19 December are likely to hamper tourist inflows and weigh on the external sector in turn.

Greece Economic Growth

Although GDP is seen expanding at a softer pace next year, partly due to a less favorable base effect, strong household spending, amid easing Covid-19 curbs and a tighter labor market, will sustain growth. Meanwhile, progressing vaccination rates globally will support the crucial tourism sector. The spread of the Omicron variant is a key factor to watch. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 4.4% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. In 2023, the panel sees the economy expanding 3.5%.

Greece Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.910.810.810.710.7
GDP per capita (EUR)16,32516,36616,73717,19717,497
GDP (EUR bn)177176180185187
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.5-0.31.41.91.9
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-1.40.51.60.41.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.30.10.90.90.7
Investment (annual variation in %)0.64.69.4-12.04.5
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)2.8-1.96.98.74.9
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)0.41.17.43.02.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.32.63.91.6-0.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-1.5-0.61.31.40.8
Unemployment Rate25.023.621.519.317.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.60.50.71.01.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)176179176181177
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)0.40.31.00.61.1
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)-1.10.01.10.80.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-7.2-5.75.34.30.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-23.62.024.7-23.649.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)-  -  -  -  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.8-1.7-1.9-2.8-1.4
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-1.4-3.1-3.4-5.2-2.6
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-17.7-18.0-19.8-22.5-22.8

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Greece Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.910.76 %Jan 01
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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