Greece Economic Forecast

Greece Economic Outlook

September 26, 2017

The recovery remained on track in Q2, although growth was still weak overall. GDP growth inched up from Q1’s result led by a boom in exports and a rebound in government consumption. Private consumption, however, grew at the slowest pace since Q2 2016, constrained by a high unemployment rate and low consumer confidence. Available data for the third quarter, however, suggests that activity is gathering steam: The current account surplus widened in July due to a strong tourism sector, and the manufacturing PMI recorded its best reading in eight years in August. The government is gearing up for a busy few weeks as it attempts to pass all the pending reforms demanded by creditors before November for an upcoming bailout review. A successful and timely conclusion to the review is key to proving the government can stand on its own two feet after the current program ends in August 2018. Prolonged negotiations could damage investor sentiment and threaten the tentative recovery. In September, the EU closed the excessive deficit procedure for Greece—a positive sign that the country is moving towards ending almost a decade of bailouts.

Greece Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)11.111.010.910.910.9
GDP per capita (EUR)17,24716,41716,28416,18216,210
GDP (EUR bn)191181178176176
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-7.3-3.20.4-0.20.0
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)-9.8-4.1-0.6-0.20.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)-8.0-2.60.4-0.21.4
Investment (annual variation in %)-23.5-8.4-4.6-0.20.1
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)1.21.57.83.4-2.0
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)-9.1-2.47.60.3-0.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-2.0-3.2-1.91.02.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-12.2-8.1-0.4-1.5-0.6
Unemployment Rate24.627.526.525.023.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-8.9-13.1-3.7-5.90.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)160177180177179
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)0.3-1.8-2.50.40.3
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)1.0-0.9-1.4-1.10.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)4.8-0.9-1.2-  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.750.250.05-  -  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)33.428.1-28.9-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.321.381.21-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.291.331.33-  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.8-2.0-1.60.1-0.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-7.3-3.7-2.90.2-1.1
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-19.8-15.2-17.0-14.3-16.0

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Greece Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.361.56 %Oct 18
Exchange Rate1.180.21 %Oct 18
Stock Market757-0.57 %Oct 18

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Greece Economic Growth

September 26, 2017

After zero growth in 2016, our panel sees the economy expanding a moderate 1.1% in 2017. Next year, the recovery should gain steam thanks to a more stable political environment, restored confidence and an improving debt profile. However, a successful exit from the bailout program is critical to the country’s growth prospects, and a high degree of uncertainty remains. GDP is seen growing 1.9% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Greece Economic News

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