Greece Economic Outlook
October 27, 2020Following a record GDP contraction in Q2, available data points to a gradual recovery in Q3. The unemployment rate, which had been rising since the outbreak of the crisis in March, dropped in July, while retail sales declined at a softer pace in August, boding well for household consumption. Additionally, the manufacturing PMI rose in August and again in September to a seven-month high, on the back of stabilizing output. Less positively, tourism revenues in the peak July–August months were down by over 75% compared to 2019, while consumer sentiment deteriorated for the third month running in September. This, together with a surge in new Covid-19 cases, should weigh on the recovery in Q4. Lastly, on 5 October, the government unveiled a EUR 63.9 billion 2021 draft budget—slightly smaller than last year—based on a 7.5% GDP growth rate and envisioning a primary fiscal deficit of 1.0% of GDP.
Greece Economic GrowthThe economy is seen rebounding strongly in 2021, supported by reviving private and capital spending and incoming EU funding. Moreover, the gradual easing of Covid-19 restrictions globally should bolster the crucial tourism industry. That said, the banking sector’s high ratio of non-performing loans and the country’s massive public debt pose key downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 5.1% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2022 the panel sees the economy expanding 4.0%.
Greece Economy Data
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Greece Economic News
April 9, 2021
Industrial output increased 4.4% year-on-year in February (January: +3.5% yoy).
Greece: Manufacturing PMI returns to expansionary terrain for the first time in over a year in March
April 1, 2021
The IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 51.8 in March from February’s 49.4, logging the best reading in over a year.
March 17, 2021
The number of unemployed workers decreased by 24,332 in December 2020 compared to November, while the seasonally-adjusted unemployment dropped to 15.8% from November’s 16.2%.
March 10, 2021
Industrial production grew 3.4% in January, easing marginally from December’s 3.5% expansion.
March 5, 2021
GDP contracted at a slower, albeit still pronounced, pace of 7.9% in the final quarter of last year (Q3 2020: -10.5% yoy), as the country’s second lockdown imposed in early November weighed on activity.