Greece Economic Forecast

Greece Economic Outlook

January 29, 2019

Available data suggests that the economy’s healthy performance in the third quarter of last year—although driven mainly by inventory accumulation—carried over into the final quarter. Industrial production rebounded strongly in November from a mild contraction in the previous month while the PMI average in Q4 came broadly in line with Q3’s, both indicating that factory activity kept up the momentum. On the demand front, unemployment remained at an over-seven year low in October which, coupled with improved consumer confidence throughout Q4 point to private consumption gaining some traction. In the political sphere, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras narrowly won a no confidence vote on 16 January, which he called for after his junior coalition partner pulled out of the government in protest over a name-change deal for Macedonia, improving his chances somewhat of serving out the rest of his term despite his party’s minority position in parliament.

Greece Economic Growth

Growth is expected to remain largely steady this year, propped up by further gains in employment, some fiscal expansion and an improving business climate. Downside risks to the outlook include the backtracking of reforms, still-sizeable non-performing exposures on banks’ balance sheets and a slowdown in external demand. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s projection, and 1.8% in 2020.

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Greece Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.470.76 %Jan 30
Exchange Rate1.140.65 %Jan 30
Stock Market636-1.46 %Jan 30

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