Central America and Caribbean Economic Outlook
CENAM GDP growth should fall to a five-year low in 2025 as fixed investment and private spending expand at the weakest rates since the Covid-19 pandemic. Weaker U.S. economic growth and mass deportations will likely cap growth in exports and remittances. U.S. trade and immigration policies are risks.
Central America and Caribbean Inflation
CENAM inflation fell to a six-month low in April, but available data suggests disinflation might now be halting. Inflation should average above 2024’s rate in 2025 as a whole on lower interest rates and weaker regional currencies. Still, lower oil and food costs should keep it below the world average. Sharper-than-expected currency depreciation is an upside risk.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central America and Caribbean from 2010 to 2023.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 151.9 | 190.6 | 232.6 | 234.2 | - |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 9.3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 5.7 | - |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 5,440 | 6,072 | 6,701 | 7,188 | - |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.06 | 2.46 | 6.36 | 5.67 | 4.95 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 132.5 | 151.5 | 171.8 | 167.5 | - |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -7.5 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 2.9 | - |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | - | - | 4.5 | - | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 62.5 | 58.3 | 54.8 | 52.3 | - |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 74.2 | 80.4 | 79.3 | 86.9 | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | - | - | 5.6 | - | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -7.5 | -3.8 | -2.1 | -2.5 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 0.3 | - | -1.7 | -0.4 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 73.6 | 68.0 | 64.2 | 61.6 | - |