Central America and Caribbean Economic Outlook
Our panelists expect CENAM’s GDP growth this year to broadly match 2025’s pace following recent forecast downgrades amid the Iran war. El Niño will likely pose further headwinds to regional GDP growth in the remainder of the year. Still, healthy growth in private plus public consumption and investment as well as a pickup in goods exports should sustain momentum.
Central America and Caribbean Inflation
In May, inflation rose in most regional economies amid persistent spikes in energy costs due to the Iran war. Our panelists see 2026 regional inflation above 2025’s average amid the Iran energy crisis. Also, El Niño’s onset is set to fan food price pressures in H2 2026. A severe El Niño and renewed closure of the Hormuz Strait pose upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central America and Caribbean from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -2.6 | -3.1 | -3.4 | -2.8 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 151.4 | 171 | 167.6 | 170 | 171 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -39.2 | -61.2 | -66.6 | -62.8 | -63.6 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 8.1 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.7 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 17.9 | 2.5 | 25.3 | 4.9 | 4.6 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 10.7 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.5 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 6,056 | 6,702 | 7,181 | 7,603 | 7,967 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 67.6 | 63.5 | 63.2 | 60.1 | 59.7 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -1.1 | -1.8 | -0.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 6.0 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 190.6 | 233 | 234.3 | 233 | 235 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 58.4 | 54.5 | 53.4 | 53.1 | 53.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.46 | 6.38 | 5.68 | 4.96 | 4.33 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 8.5 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 80.4 | 79.3 | 86.9 | 91.0 | 110 |