Central America and Caribbean Economic Outlook
In 2025, CENAM GDP growth will be the slowest since the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 as both fixed investment and private spending decelerate. Protectionism, slowing economic momentum and ramped up deportations in the U.S. will weigh on CENAM’s economy. Immigration and trade policies in the U.S. are key risk factors to monitor.
Central America and Caribbean Inflation
In July, CENAM inflation inched down to a nine-month low, with price pressures easing in most of the region. In 2025 as a whole, average inflation should be close to 2024 levels, as interest rate cuts and sharper year-on-year currency depreciation broadly offset downside pressures from lower oil prices and subdued private consumption.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central America and Caribbean from 2010 to 2024.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 73.4 | 67.8 | 63.9 | 61.6 | 60.1 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -19.5 | -39.1 | -60.8 | -66.7 | -55.1 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -15.5 | 21.0 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.9 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -6.0 | 10.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 4.0 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 5,453 | 6,086 | 6,722 | 7,214 | 7,639 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 0.3 | - | -1.7 | -0.4 | 0.0 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 62.6 | 58.4 | 54.8 | 52.3 | 51.9 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 151.9 | 190.6 | 232.6 | 234.3 | 224.0 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 74.2 | 80.4 | 79.3 | 86.9 | 91.0 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 132.5 | 151.4 | 171.8 | 167.6 | 168.9 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -7.5 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 2.05 | 2.46 | 6.36 | 5.67 | 4.96 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -7.5 | -3.8 | -2.1 | -2.5 | -3.2 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 9.3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 6.1 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.1 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 |