United States Retail
Retail sales growth picks up pace in July
Retail sales expanded 0.7% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in July (June: +0.3% mom). The result marked the best reading since January, and was far above market expectations of 0.4%. That said, Amazon Prime Day sales likely flattered the data somewhat. Looking at the details of the release, food and beverages, non-store retailers and gasoline station sales gained pace.
On an annual basis, retail sales grew 3.2% in July, which was significantly better than June’s 1.6% expansion and marked the best result since February.
July’s figures bode well for consumer spending in Q3, against a backdrop of a still-solid labor market, lower inflation than earlier in the year and optimistic household sentiment.
On the latest data and forecast implications, Goldman Sachs’ analysts said:
“Combining data from the latest retail sales and CPI reports, we estimate that real core retail sales increased 1.2% in July. While we assume Amazon Prime Day pulled forward some spending from August into July, we nonetheless boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by seven tenths to +2.2% (qoq ar) and our domestic final sales growth forecast by eight tenths to +2.1%.”
United States Retail Chart
This chart displays Retail Sales (ann. var. %) for United States from 2013 to 2022.
United States Retail Data
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales (ann. var. %) | 4.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 18.2 | 9.7 |