Merchandise exports surge in June

Latest reading: Merchandise exports shot up 33.7% in annual terms in June (May: +38.6% year-on-year), well above market expectations, linked to burgeoning global demand for AI applications. Looking at key trading partners, sales to the U.S. nearly doubled, while those to other regions showed more modest growth or contracted slightly. Meanwhile, merchandise imports jumped 17.3% on an annual basis in June (May: +25.0% yoy), marking the weakest result since January 2025 but still a robust reading linked to tech facility investment. As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 12.1 billion surplus in June (May 2025: USD 12.6 billion surplus; June 2024: USD 4.7 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend improved, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 100.2 billion surplus in June, compared to the USD 92.9 billion surplus in May.

Panelist insight: On the data and outlook, Nomura analysts said: “Although frontloading demand partly contributed to strong export growth following the US tariff threat, we believe the AI investment cycle is a key structural driver of solid export growth, which can partly offset adverse tariff-led shocks. That said, ahead of the 1 August tariff negotiation deadline, the mounting trade surplus with the US may lead to a hawkish tariff deal including conditions to import more from the US.”

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