Export surge continues in September

Latest reading: In September, the trade balance was USD +12.4 billion, following a USD +16.8 billion figure in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +120.4 billion. Exports rose 33.8% in year-on-year terms in September, coming on the back of a 34.1% rise in the previous month. September’s reading was somewhat below market expectations but still elevated by historical standards. Exports rose by double digits to all key trading partners, with sales to the U.S. increasing the most. As in past months, higher sales of IT products—linked to the boom in global AI demand—drove exports. Imports rose 25.1% in year-on-year terms in September, following 29.5% growth in the prior month.

Panelist insight: On the export outlook, Nomura analysts said: “Looking ahead, we expect export growth in Q4 to remain resilient, albeit slower than in Q3, reflecting some payback from frontloading. That said, with the AI capex cycle continuing to gain momentum, we expect exports – which are heavily concentrated in tech – to potentially present upside risks to the growth outlook, which could mitigate the downside risks from soft domestic demand amid weak private consumption.” 

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