Economic Growth in Russia
Over the last decade, Russia's GDP growth experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and oil price volatility. The economy contracted in 2015-2016 due to declining oil prices and the impact of sanctions linked to the annexation of Crimea, recovering slightly thereafter. COVID-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine brought further downturns in 2020 and 2022, respectively. That said, the economy has performed much better than expected since 2023, thanks to war-related investment and government spending, and the country's ability to skirt Western sanctions by rerouting exports through unaffected countries, particularly in Asia.
In the year 2024, the economic growth in Russia was 4.34%, compared to 0.74% in 2014 and 4.08% in 2023. It averaged 1.45% over the last decade. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Russia GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Russia from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Macrobond.
Russia GDP Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -2.7 | 5.9 | -1.4 | 4.1 | 4.3 |
GDP (USD bn) | 1,489 | 1,828 | 2,243 | 2,062 | 2,166 |
GDP (EUR bn) | 1,306 | 1,546 | 2,134 | 1,907 | 2,003 |
GDP (RUB bn) | 107,658 | 134,727 | 156,941 | 176,414 | 201,152 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.8 | 25.1 | 16.5 | 12.4 | 14.0 |
War fatigue pushes economic growth to a two-year low in Q1
War fatigue pushes economic growth to a two-year low in Q1
Second release reveals steeper slowdown:
Second release reveals steeper slowdown: The economy shifted into a lower gear at the outset of 2025, with the mounting strain from prolonged war, sanctions plus sky-high interest rates and inflation pushing annual GDP growth to 1.4% in Q1. The result was below a 1.5% initial estimate and Q4 2024’s 4.5% print, marking one of the weakest expansions in the post-pandemic era, barring contractions in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity contracted 0.6% in Q1, contrasting the previous quarter's 1.1% gain.
The economy shifted into a lower gear at the outset of 2025, with the mounting strain from prolonged war, sanctions plus sky-high interest rates and inflation pushing annual GDP growth to 1.4% in Q1. The result was below a 1.5% initial estimate and Q4 2024’s 4.5% print, marking one of the weakest expansions in the post-pandemic era, barring contractions in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity contracted 0.6% in Q1, contrasting the previous quarter's 1.1% gain.Sanctions, gas deal termination and weak purchasing power pose strong headwinds:
Sanctions, gas deal termination and weak purchasing power pose strong headwinds: The services and industrial sectors—together over 95% of GDP—were major drags on momentum. The tertiary sector felt the pinch of a sharper decline in real wages, historically elevated interest rates and persistent labor shortages: Domestic trade shrank 0.1% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +4.9% yoy), its first drop in two years. Moreover, growth in the public administration sector fell to 6.8% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +7.8% yoy)—albeit still outpacing the pre-invasion decade average—hinting at cooling wartime spending that had driven sturdy GDP growth in 2023–2024. Meanwhile, momentum in industry ground to a near halt in Q1. Energy output contracted 3.8%, deteriorating from the prior quarter's 0.6% fall, while manufacturing growth more than halved to 4.5% (Q4 2024: +9.5% yoy). Industrial downturn reflected mounting sanctions on hydrocarbons—the country’s top export—plus the expiration of a Russia-Ukraine gas supply contract in January. Still, construction activity increased by 7.3% in Q1 (Q4: +2.9% yoy), cushioning the slowdown. More positively, the agricultural sector returned to growth, expanding 1.1% in the first quarter after the prior quarter’s 8.9% decline; in Q1. The rebound was likely supported by China’s decision to raise duties on Canadian and U.S. agricultural products, stepping up its imports of Russian crops in turn.
The services and industrial sectors—together over 95% of GDP—were major drags on momentum. The tertiary sector felt the pinch of a sharper decline in real wages, historically elevated interest rates and persistent labor shortages: Domestic trade shrank 0.1% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +4.9% yoy), its first drop in two years. Moreover, growth in the public administration sector fell to 6.8% in Q1 (Q4 2024: +7.8% yoy)—albeit still outpacing the pre-invasion decade average—hinting at cooling wartime spending that had driven sturdy GDP growth in 2023–2024. Meanwhile, momentum in industry ground to a near halt in Q1. Energy output contracted 3.8%, deteriorating from the prior quarter's 0.6% fall, while manufacturing growth more than halved to 4.5% (Q4 2024: +9.5% yoy). Industrial downturn reflected mounting sanctions on hydrocarbons—the country’s top export—plus the expiration of a Russia-Ukraine gas supply contract in January. Still, construction activity increased by 7.3% in Q1 (Q4: +2.9% yoy), cushioning the slowdown. More positively, the agricultural sector returned to growth, expanding 1.1% in the first quarter after the prior quarter’s 8.9% decline; in Q1. The rebound was likely supported by China’s decision to raise duties on Canadian and U.S. agricultural products, stepping up its imports of Russian crops in turn.Economy to lose steam in 2025:
Economy to lose steam in 2025: Our panelists have penciled in another subdued growth print for Q2 and see momentum easing further in H2. Elevated interest rates and inflation, paired with subdued wage growth and labor shortages, should dent household budgets. Moreover, sanctions plus plunging oil prices should hit export revenues and government spending in turn. Meanwhile, easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. could drag on agricultural exports. Overall in 2025, our Consensus is for economic growth to more than halve from 2024, dipping below the pre-pandemic 10-year average of 1.9%. Oil prices, the health of the construction sector plus peace negotiations will be key to track; a peace deal could imply some easing of trade restrictions and labor shortages.
Our panelists have penciled in another subdued growth print for Q2 and see momentum easing further in H2. Elevated interest rates and inflation, paired with subdued wage growth and labor shortages, should dent household budgets. Moreover, sanctions plus plunging oil prices should hit export revenues and government spending in turn. Meanwhile, easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. could drag on agricultural exports. Overall in 2025, our Consensus is for economic growth to more than halve from 2024, dipping below the pre-pandemic 10-year average of 1.9%. Oil prices, the health of the construction sector plus peace negotiations will be key to track; a peace deal could imply some easing of trade restrictions and labor shortages.How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Russian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 35 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Russian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Russian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Russian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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