Netherlands Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn)

After deteriorating sequentially in Q3 last year, activity bounced back in Q4 due to accelerations in private consumption, public spending and exports, as well as a rebound in fixed investment. In Q1 this year, our panelists project a contraction in activity. In January, industry contracted annually at the steepest pace since April 2020, at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. That said, inflation decelerated and wage growth picked up in January–February, and consumer confidence improved over the quarter, boding well for private spending. In politics, the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB) won 137 seats in March’s provincial elections—more than double that of the second-place party, the VVD. Its victory will complicate Dutch politics ahead, especially environmental policy—opposition to the planned curbs on nitrogen emissions is the signature policy of the BBB.